GOP tweaks approach amid dire projections
WASHINGTON – With top Republican strategists now privately predicting substantial House losses, President Bush and top GOP officials plan to spend the final days of the 2006 campaign attempting to rally partisans and limit conservative defections with dire warnings about the consequences of a Democratic Congress.
Amid warnings that demoralized conservative voters might sit out the election, Bush and other senior Republicans will escalate charges that Democrats will raise taxes, weaken national security and liberalize social policies. Bush struck those themes in campaign appearances Thursday in Pennsylvania and Virginia, and White House senior adviser Karl Rove said he “will consistently refresh that message” between now and Election Day.
Beyond the White House, however, there is increasing anxiety among Republicans about whether new efforts to frame the party’s message can be effective in turning a tide that seems to be running powerfully against them as a result of the Iraq war and the Mark Foley page scandal.
For months, Republican leaders have sought to reassure candidates and activists with a succession of strategies. These include efforts to transcend the national environment by focusing House and Senate races on local issues as well as high-profile speeches by Bush casting Iraq as just one theater in a larger war against terrorists. But none of these approaches has succeeded over a sustained time in reversing polls showing deep voter unrest and willingness to punish Republicans for the performance of Washington.
The mood among most GOP strategists – with the exception of Rove and a few others – is decidedly downbeat heading into the final 18 days. They see poll after poll showing a growing number of GOP House incumbents in serious danger, including many who just weeks ago were considered relatively safe for re-election. The list of most-imperiled incumbents includes Reps. Heather Wilson of New Mexico and Curt Weldon of Pennsylvania, whose seats Republicans were more optimistic about a week ago, a top GOP strategist said.
By this reckoning, roughly a dozen GOP-controlled House seats are “gone, no ifs, ands, ors about it,” said the strategist, who spoke on condition of anonymity while discussing internal party deliberations.
A number of GOP operatives said privately Thursday that they now see minimum losses of perhaps 18 seats, with 25 to 30 a more likely outcome. Democrats need 15 to take control of the House.
Republicans are slightly more optimistic about the Senate but nonetheless are worried about prospects for maintaining control. At this point, they see four seats likely to tip to the Democrats: Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Montana and Ohio. Democrats need six seats to take control. That means the battle could come down to Republican-held seats in Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia, all of which are considered too close to call now. Republicans see New Jersey as their best chance to gain a seat.