Sizing up the elections, electorate
With the 2006 elections just seven weeks away, here are some random thoughts about where things stand:
“Races are tightening all over the country as voters start to pay closer attention and begin to compare candidates instead of reacting to the latest news from Iraq or gas prices.
“Polls show that while the Democrats are still favored to make substantial gains in Congress – and perhaps take control of one or both houses – their leads, in many cases, are shrinking as the issues in individual races come into sharper focus and the cacophony emanating from Washington recedes, or at least gets less attention.
“Congressional incumbents, no matter what party, who have effectively looked out for the interests of their constituents – and can demonstrate it – should have little trouble winning re-election.
Lawmakers who have brought home their fair share of federal dollars for local projects, helped local businesses get aid from Washington, and assisted constituents who needed assistance should win easily.
“Most voters won’t punish a Congress member who has maintained solid ethical standards just because another member of the same party from another state has been charged or convicted of corruption.
The notion that all incumbents get painted with the broad brush of scandal is overblown by a news media addicted to thinking the worst of everyone. Voters, thankfully, are fairer than that. They call them as they see them.
“While the media might play up a candidate’s misstatement – an ethnic slur or an outlandish accusation – few voters opt for the opposing candidate as a result.
If a candidate has a pattern of making ethnic slurs or misstating facts, that’s one thing. A one-time slip is another. Most voters know the difference and are more tolerant of human frailties than the press.
“Most voters who like their incumbent member of Congress but don’t agree with his or her stand on the war in Iraq won’t vote for the opposing candidate in November based simply on that issue. That’s why Connecticut Democratic Sen. Joe Lieberman, who lost his party primary because he supports the war, will win re-election running as an independent. By most accounts, Lieberman has been a solid, honest representative of the people of his state and their interests.
Other predictions:
“New York Democratic Sen. Hillary Clinton will easily win re-election in November and quickly start running for president in 2008.
“Massachusetts Democratic Sen. John Kerry, already running hard for president, will again see his hopes dashed.
“Arizona Sen. John McCain will not be the 2008 Republican nominee for president. Neither will former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
“Pennsylvania Republican Sen. Rick Santorum, still behind in his race for a third term, will pull ahead and win. Same for Mike DeWine in Ohio. Both have effectively represented their states in Washington.
“President Bush will be a big factor in the fall elections, and not necessarily a negative one. He will campaign around the country and push his case for staying the course and maintaining a hard line on the war on terrorism. Many voters will agree.
“Democrats still have a ways to go to convince most voters they will stand tall and tough in the face of enemies out to kill Americans and destroy our way of life.
“Republican incumbents who have supported Bush and the war in Iraq, and now try to back and fill, do so at their own peril. Most voters instinctively understand the saying, “You dance with the one that brung ya.”
“All races are local, and most will turn on local issues. The Washington press corps might be trying to make them a national referendum on Bush, but as usual, the Washington press corps is out of touch with the people of this country.
“Most voters are smarter than reporters and pundits.