Bin Laden death report in doubt
CAIRO, Egypt – A French intelligence report that says Osama bin Laden may have died of typhoid in Pakistan last month is causing a stir among al-Qaida trackers who’d already raised concerns about why it’s been two years since bin Laden has appeared in a video.
President Jacques Chirac confirmed the existence of the report but stressed that the information in it is “in no way whatsoever confirmed.”
“We are not confirming whatever has been said in this report because we consider it a source among other sources,” said a French security official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “Our services, like others around the world, don’t use just one source for reaching such a conclusion. They need multiple sources. We don’t think this is a reliable report at this stage.”
The United States and several allied governments also cast doubt on the authenticity of the claims, which have been made before and proven erroneous.
News of the al-Qaida chief’s possible death surfaced Saturday with a French newspaper’s publication of a confidential document from the French foreign intelligence service DGSE that relayed the unconfirmed findings of Saudi agents. The report said Saudi security first received word Sept 4 of bin Laden’s alleged death. It was said to have occurred on Aug. 23.
“According to a usually reliable source, Saudi security services are now convinced that Osama bin Laden is dead,” said the report published Saturday in the regional newspaper l’Est Republicain.
An American intelligence official, who requested anonymity, said U.S. intelligence analysts consider the report bogus. He said there’s “no evidence to support or reason to believe” that bin Laden is dead. He added that U.S. officials were aware of the unconfirmed report before it was made public by the newspaper.
Vincent Cannistraro, a former chief of the CIA’s Counter-Terrorism Center, said he was deeply skeptical of the French report.
“There’s no confirmation of the report” from U.S. officials Cannistraro said, adding that the sourcing “appears to be very soft.”
He said that if bin Laden had died, U.S. intelligence agencies would have picked up “indicators,” such as condolence messages from grieving relatives.
Yet even before the French report emerged, speculation was mounting among al-Qaida analysts over why it’s been two years since the terror chief has appeared in a video message.
While 2006 was a record year for al-Qaida communiques – with more than three times the number of videos from any previous year – none of the tapes showed bin Laden. Several audiotapes purportedly by bin Laden have aired, and the CIA has confirmed their authenticity, but some scholars who closely monitor bin Laden suspect they’re old recordings spliced to sound as if they’re related to current events.
“I’m not convinced any of the tapes we heard in 2006 are new,” said Bruce Lawrence, a Duke University professor and author of the book “Messages to the World: The Statements of Osama bin Laden.”
Lawrence, who’s been described as one of the world’s leading al-Qaida archivists, added that “there’s something staged and strange” about the wording and style of some of the recently released tapes.
Bin Laden’s last video appearance was in October 2004, when the Al-Jazeera satellite TV channel aired footage of him appealing directly to Americans just before the presidential election.
Lawrence said rumors abounded that bin Laden suffered from kidney trouble and other ailments, but he noted that reliable information was scarce.
“He’s been living a very rugged life for 15 years, and it’s probably taken a toll on him,” Lawrence said. “(But) if you’re an intelligence person and your target is al-Qaida and bin Laden is one of the most important people you track, the question now becomes: Why haven’t we seen bin Laden in two years?”