Odds are Curlin will be Derby favorite

FORT WORTH, Texas – Last Saturday’s Blue Grass Stakes was more like bungee jumping than horse racing. Expected to produce the favorite for the Kentucky Derby, it instead produced nothing but meaningless excitement.

So deciding on a favorite for this year’s Derby might be nearly as challenging as finding the winner. But history, as always, provides some assistance.

Every Kentucky Derby favorite since 1962 has entered the race off a victory. (With favored entries, at least one of the horses had won his previous start; Secretariat, for example, lost the Wood to his stablemate, Angle Light, but as a coupled entry, they were the 7-5 favorites in the 1973 Derby.)

The last Derby favorite who had not won his previous outing was Carry Back. Before winning the 1961 Derby as the 5-2 favorite, he rallied to finish second in the Wood to a long shot named Globemaster, who had stolen away with an easy lead. (Globemaster, by the way, faded to sixth in the Derby, where he was 8-1.)

If Street Sense had won the Blue Grass, he would be going to Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., as the clear Derby favorite. If Great Hunter had won, he instantly would have become the Derby favorite. But Street Sense, after having to race wide, lost by a nose to Dominican. And Great Hunter had to be checked sharply in midstretch when Teuflesberg, who probably should have been disqualified, drifted out. Great Hunter finished fifth.

But that’s not why the Blue Grass was meaningless. As a predictor of success and an indicator of ability, the Blue Grass was meaningless simply because the horses that ran in the race won’t see the same set of circumstances again.

The race meant nothing, but the betting public won’t ignore it. History insists the bettors will look for a recent winner. So Curlin will probably be the Derby favorite, having won his three races by a total of 28 1/2 lengths, including Saturday’s Arkansas Derby by 10 1/2.

Nobiz Like Shobiz was unimpressive when winning the Wood; Circular Quay won the Louisiana Derby stylishly, but that was so long ago; Scat Daddy won the Florida Derby with professionalism, but he’s generally underrated.

Curlin, on the other hand, is the sort of horse that can inspire dreams. Among this year’s 3-year-olds, he might be the only one that has a chance to be spoken of years from now.