‘Surge’ troops could begin exit in April

WASHINGTON – About 28,000 American combat troops would be withdrawn from Iraq over a five-month period beginning in April under a plan to be submitted to President Bush next month by Gen. David Petraeus, the U.S. commander in Iraq.

Petraeus’ deputy, Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno, said Friday the five combat brigades ordered by Bush to “surge” to Iraq last winter would be withdrawn at a rate of one brigade per month. The withdrawal, to be completed in August 2008, would leave about 130,000 U.S. troops in Iraq.

Odierno, speaking to reporters at the Pentagon on a video link from Baghdad, cautioned that while U.S. forces in Iraq are making steady progress, “Our recent tactical successes are not yet enduring trends.

“We no longer see the cycle of sectarian revenge that plagued Iraq last year,” Odierno said, but he added: “There are no easy solutions in Iraq, and it will continue to require strategic patience.”

The debate about troop withdrawals from Iraq will intensify next month, when Petraeus is due to report on how the surge of troops, and the new counterinsurgency tactics adopted by Petraeus, have affected conditions in Iraq’s violent sectarian conflict.

But the withdrawal of the five combat brigades that composed the surge is based less on conditions in Iraq than on the simple unavailability of fresh troops.

In April, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates reluctantly extended troop deployments in Iraq from 12 to 15 months in order to maintain troop levels at about 162,000.

At the time, Gates declared that the extension of combat tours “upholds our commitment to decide when to begin any drawdown of U.S. forces in Iraq solely based on conditions on the ground.”

Since then, however, senior military leaders – including Adm. Mike Mullen, incoming chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff – have acknowledged that the surge effectively will end in April because there are no fresh replacements. What Odierno provided Friday were fresh details on the rate of withdrawal, which many in Congress have urged be done more quickly and with deeper reductions.

Odierno’s assessment was essentially a preview of what Petraeus will deliver formally to the White House and to Congress on Sept. 10 and 11. It will be accompanied by an assessment of the political situation in Iraq by the U.S. ambassador, Ryan Crocker.

Senior U.S. officials have been careful not to rule out deeper cuts in U.S. force levels in Iraq next year.

While the U.S. military command does not intend to “backfill” or replace the departing troops, Odierno said any further troop withdrawals will depend on local security conditions.

Overall, the U.S. command in Iraq reports that total attacks at the lowest level in 12 months, and attacks against civilians are at a six-month low.

Civilian killings in Baghdad are down 51 percent, the command said, but it would not provide the actual numbers.