Pac-10 race appears open from spots 2-9
PULLMAN – The top spot has basically been conceded. The bottom seems to be a given as well. So are the other eight Pac-10 teams all vying for position between USC and Stanford?
When the Pac-10 coaches gathered near Los Angeles International in late July for the conference’s media day, they seemed to be competing for the role of USC’s biggest sycophant, with Stanford’s Jim Harbaugh taking the honor when he labeled USC as possibly the greatest team of all time.
For his part, USC Trojans head coach Pete Carroll was having none of it.
“There’s no way I would have any way of understanding what that’s all about and I would never even think to try to make that evaluation,” Carroll said then, before adding a mantra he’s repeated all fall. “We’re just a bunch of guys trying to put together a terrific team.”
And Harry Potter is just a wizard.
But let’s face it. USC might be able to win the conference just on the strength of its defense alone. Throw in an offense guided by a senior quarterback and the Trojans should be bound for the BCS title game.
Cal seems to be the best of the rest, but until the Bears show they know how to win the big game – they get their first chance Saturday when they host Tennessee – they can’t be picked over USC.
UCLA returns nearly everyone from last year’s up-and-down team; Arizona and Oregon are changing offensive strategies; Arizona State has a new – though familiar – coach; Oregon State has been a soap opera this fall; Washington State, with possibly the conference’s best passing attack, has holes to fill; Washington’s youngsters will face a brutal early schedule; and Stanford is the consensus cellar dweller – although no one called Harbaugh’s team possibly one of the worst of all time. Not even Carroll.
Here are the conference’s teams, in predicted order of finish:
USC Trojans
2006 record: 11-2, 7-2.
Head coach: Pete Carroll, 65-12 in six years, 33-31 in four NFL seasons.
Returning starters: 17, seven on offense, 10 on defense.
When they play the Cougars: Sept. 22 in Los Angeles.
Outlook: The consensus No. 1 team in the nation, the Trojans will start fast because a) they are really good and b) their schedule doesn’t toughen up until late October. The defense, led by nose tackle Sedrick Ellis, middle linebacker Rey Maualuga and cornerback Terrell Thomas, may have eight All-Pac-10 players. John David Booty was the first-team All-Pac-10 quarterback last season, although he’ll be working with a new – but talented – group of receivers. The cracks are showing a little in the Trojans’ all-for-one facade, with running back Emmanual Moody throwing some darts on the way out.
California Golden Bears
2006 record: 10-3, 7-2.
Head coach: Jeff Tedford, 43-20 in five years, 43-20 overall.
Returning starters: 12, seven on offense, five on defense.
When they play the Cougars: Nov. 3 in Berkeley.
Outlook: The Bears have clawed their way to the top of the conference with their offense. With Nate Longshore throwing to wideouts DeSean Jackson (an All-American) and Robert Jordan and tight end Craig Stevens, that will be their strength again. Although Marshawn Lynch left, Justin Forsett is a capable replacement at running back. Last year’s defense was dominated by seniors, with only two of the starting front seven returning. It’s going to have to come together quickly because Cal can’t afford another deflating loss to Tennessee in the opener.
Arizona Wildcats
2006 record: 6-6, 4-5.
Head coach: Mike Stoops, 12-22 in three years, 12-22 overall.
Returning starters: 19, nine on offense, 10 on defense.
When they play the Cougars: Sept. 29 in Tucson.
Outlook: The defense is going to be pretty much unbreakable. The offense is going to spread the field – former Texas Tech coordinator Sonny Dykes is on board – and allow junior quarterback Willie Tuitama to create. So why is everyone so down on the Wildcats? Because Stoops has yet to win in Tucson. If Tuitama stays healthy and the new offense can deliver points without too many turnovers, Arizona will be this year’s surprise team. If not, and another losing season results, Stoops will be in trouble.
UCLA Bruins
2006 record: 7-6, 5-4.
Head coach: Karl Dorrell, 29-21 in four years, 29-21 overall.
Returning starters: 20, 10 on offense, 10 on defense.
When they play the Cougars: Oct. 27 in Pullman.
Outlook: A load of experience on both sides of the ball. Talented skill position players. Dominating defenders. This has to be the year for the Bruins, doesn’t it? It should be, especially if second-year coordinator DeWayne Walker’s defense plays as well as it did in last year’s 13-9 upset of USC. Defensive end Bruce Davis and linebackers Christian Taylor and Reggie Carter supply the speed and aggressiveness for a team that limited opponents to 91 yards a game rushing. The biggest question on offense is 6-foot-4 quarterback Ben Olson, who started the first five games before a knee injury finished his season. Backup Patrick Cowan led the upset of USC, but has dropped to third on the depth chart behind redshirt freshman McLeod Bethel-Thompson.
Oregon State Beavers
2006 record: 10-4, 6-3.
Head coach: Mike Riley, 38-34 in six years, 14-34 in three NFL seasons.
Returning starters: 15, seven on offense, eight on defense.
When they play the Cougars: Nov. 17 in Pullman.
Outlook: This has been a trying fall camp for the Beavers, with the off-again, on-again status of All-Pac-10 receiver and punt returner Sammie Stroughter dominating the headlines. As of now, Stroughter is … who knows? Whatever the outcome, his Hamlet act has hurt OSU, possibly robbing the Beavers of the momentum built by finishing last season with eight wins in nine games. If Stroughter doesn’t play, the pressure shifts to running back Yvenson Bernard, a first-team all-conference selection last year. The defense returns three linebackers and three defensive backs, but loses strong safety and leader Sabby Piscitelli.
Washington St. Cougars
2006 record: 6-6, 4-5.
Head coach: Bill Doba, 25-22 in four years, 25-22 overall.
Returning starters: 12, seven on offense, five on defense.
Outlook: A healthy Cougars team has a good chance of emulating last year’s first nine games, when WSU was 6-3. If injuries hit, then last year’s final three games – all losses – might be the bellwether. The Cougars will score points and quite possibly, with quarterback Alex Brink and receivers Michael Bumpus, Brandon Gibson, Charles Dillon and Jed Collins, quickly and in bunches. But will the defensive secondary stop anyone? With three new physically gifted but raw starters, the group should improve as the season goes on. Until then, the front seven will have to carry the load.
Arizona State Sun Devils
2006 record: 7-6, 4-5.
Head coach: Dennis Erickson, first year, 148-65-1 in 18 college years overall, 40-56 in six NFL seasons.
Returning starters: 16, 10 on offense, six on defense.
When they play the Cougars: Oct. 6 in Pullman.
Outlook: There’s a buzz in the Valley of the Sun, just like there was in Moscow last year and in Corvallis a few years ago and yes, Dennis Erickson has a new job. One thing about Erickson, he’s always delivered success – at the college level – although usually not until his second season. But other than Miami, Erickson hasn’t stepped into a team as potent on offense as this one. With quarterback Rudy Carpenter, who was one of the nation’s best two years ago as a freshman, and three returning receivers, the Sun Devils should score. The defense, which gave up more Pac-10 points last year than every one but Stanford, will be different, with Erickson trying to get his 11 fastest defenders on the field. It may not be enough.
Oregon Ducks
2006 record: 7-6, 4-5.
Head coach: Mike Bellotti, 97-48 in 12 years, 118-73-2 in 17 years overall.
Returning starters: 14, seven on offense, seven on defense.
When they play the Cougars: Oct. 13 in Eugene.
Outlook: When offensive coordinator Gary Crowton decided to move on to LSU, Bellotti thought it was time to make a sea change. He hired New Hampshire’s Chip Kelly, a proponent of the spread offense, and gave him the reins. The Ducks spent the spring getting quarterback Dennis Dixon comfortable in a no-huddle, shotgun attack. Then Dixon decided to play minor league baseball all summer, and the learning stopped. He’s back now and at the controls. How much the lost time will cost is yet to be seen. Not much, if all he has to do is hand the ball to Jonathan Stewart, the oft-nicked junior who has shown flashes of brilliance but has yet to fulfill the potential he exhibited in high school.
Washington Huskies
2006 record: 5-7, 3-6.
Head coach: Tyrone Willingham, 7-16 in two years, 72-68-1 in 12 years overall.
Returning starters: 12, six on offense, six on defense.
When they play the Cougars: Nov. 24 in Seattle.
Outlook: The Huskies will be starting a freshman quarterback, Jake Locker. They have to replace half of their secondary and, like WSU, are starting a true freshman, Vonzell McDowell, Jr., at corner in the opener. The offensive line has been torn down and rebuilt, with two freshmen possibly starting. The running back position is troubling. The Huskies open with a schedule that would make some of the nation’s best teams cringe: a trip across the country to Syracuse’s Carrier Dome, home against Boise State and Ohio State, a trip to UCLA and then back to host USC – all before September ends. Washington could be improved and still start the season 0-5.
Stanford Cardinal
2006 record: 1-11, 1-8.
Head coach: Jim Harbaugh, first year, 29-6 in three years overall.
Returning starters: 17, nine on offense, eight on defense.
When they play the Cougars: Nov. 10 in Pullman.
Outlook: The Cardinal were one of the nation’s worst teams last year, so the number of starters returning might be considered a bad thing. Actually, Stanford is counting as returning starters two offensive players who missed 2006 with injuries, so the number is a little misleading. The new guys who really matter are quarterback T.C. Ostrander, a senior who backed up Trent Edwards but played in 10 games last season, and Harbaugh, who brings a combative attitude from the University of San Diego. The defense returns six of the front seven, but Stanford was last in total defense, last in rush defense and last in scoring defense in the conference last season.