Michael Goodwin: Clinton’s run looking familiar

The 2008 presidential election is a long way off, but the first tea leaves raise an intriguing question: Is Hillary Clinton the new John Kerry?

Clinton has been the front-runner for the Democratic nomination, but she’s suddenly looking tired next to two surging opponents. Recent polls from Iowa and New Hampshire, two of the first states to cast nominating ballots, show Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards either ahead of her or tied with her.

The early results recall Kerry’s tortured path to the 2004 nomination. He was flying high in the preliminary jockeying, then sagged like rotting fruit as the voting drew closer. He got his groove back only with a dramatic comeback victory in the Iowa caucus.

Clinton would be happy with such an outcome, but she can’t be happy at the recent turn of events, which count as the first surprises of the 2008 race. It’s bad enough that Obama is the hot ticket after his stunning decision to test a race. But even more surprising is that Edwards, Kerry’s lackluster running mate in 2004, is doing so well in both states.

Having two formidable opponents ahead of her is not a good omen, for it reveals that many Dems don’t want Clinton. They know her and, so far, they’re rejecting her.

The latest Iowa poll was certainly an attention-getter. A survey of 600 likely party voters there put Clinton a distant fourth. Edwards and Obama both scored 22 percent, and the state’s governor, Tom Vilsack, got 12 percent. Clinton scored only 10 percent.

Clinton did better in a New Hampshire survey, where she scored 22 percent, a virtual tie with Obama’s 21 percent, while Edwards got 16 percent. As in Iowa, Al Gore and Kerry followed.

In both states, Obama and Edwards did better against most possible Republican nominees than did Clinton.

Because those two states’ impact can be out of proportion to their size, the party has scrambled the calendar for 2008 to get more regional and racial diversity. Iowa’s caucus on Jan. 14 is followed by one in Nevada five days later. The first primary remains in New Hampshire on Jan. 22, followed a week later by one in South Carolina. By March, the whole thing is essentially over.

That first month should give Clinton some advantages in that she’ll have money to compete everywhere. Yet each state and each opponent present different problems. Edwards, for example, has focused on Iowa for a long time, aiming for early momentum. I saw his strategy at work back in the spring in New York, when I challenged him by saying that “Clinton will be your party’s nominee in 2008.”

“Not if she loses Iowa,” he answered firmly. It was clear he would make a stand there, where he finished second to Kerry in 2004, and hopes to slow down her juggernaut. The addition of South Carolina to the early schedule could also help him.

Obama presents an odd threat to Clinton almost everywhere. On paper, he’s just another liberal senator with little experience, but his charisma and biracial lineage, combined with the advantage of an outsider’s image, have created a sensation. He is drawing the largest and most enthusiastic crowds, much as Howard Dean did in the early goings of 2004.

In that sense, Dean’s example could offer hope to Clinton. While the former Vermont governor is well-known for his bizarre screaming act in Iowa, many people forget that Dean’s scream followed his dismal third-place showing there. Kerry’s win restored him to the top of the heap, giving Dean good reason to freak out.

Clinton can only hope that history repeats itself in Iowa, this time in her favor.