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Spokane, Washington  Est. May 19, 1883

Bert Caldwell: Growth will be mostly urban, economist says

Bert Caldwell The Spokesman-Review

Cheap housing. Good schools. Low crime. All are elements of an attractive community, perhaps one where a business might relocate or open a satellite office, especially if quality roads and telecommunications links are already in place.

Certainly, the mix of assets should appeal to ex-urbanites flush with cash from the sale of their old homes and looking to decompress.

Eastern Washington and North Idaho are dimpled with towns that fit the profile. And in recent years those qualities have pulled newcomers into Coeur d’Alene, Sandpoint, Liberty Lake and like-sized communities where cheap has dropped out of the formula. Colville has thrived on manufacturing despite the erosion of its natural resources base.

But deeper into the countryside, away from the lakefronts and timbered hills, smaller communities are struggling against the flight of their children and the gravitational pull of Spokane. Although very optimistic about the Inland Northwest’s overall prospects, Avista Corp. economist Randy Barcus does not foresee a reversal of fortune.

He says growth in Spokane and Kootenai counties will double that of surrounding counties, some of which will continue to experience a slow exodus. The populations of towns from Goldendale to Colville to Bonners Ferry will flatline over the next 20 years, he predicts, while Medical Lake, Athol, Spangle and others a short commute to the urban centers will triple.

The region’s personal income growth will also ride on the waves generated in Spokane and Kootenai counties. Barcus projects a tripling of Spokane per capita incomes – to near $100,000 – by 2036. In neighboring counties, except Kootenai, $50,000 is his expectation. Still, average income growth of 3.6 percent annually for the region will significantly outdistance the concurrent 2 percent inflation rate.

He says lifestyle will draw the young into the cities, proximity to high-quality health care, the elderly.

“People are used to having services,” Barcus says, especially if they move up from California. As many have, and will.

High gasoline prices will discourage long commutes, one reason he’s particularly high on the prospects for Airway Heights.

Employers’ need for workers, and workers’ need for ongoing education, will be an important part of the dynamic keeping both groups centered near universities and community colleges.

Joe Tortorelli agrees there are challenges, but he adds that outlying communities have significant assets. Tortorelli once co-directed Avista’s rural economic development efforts. He now has a consulting business, Economic Development NW.

One client, Ritzville, is trying to find a tenant for a new customer service center. Its location at the juncture of Interstate 90 and U.S. Highway 395 suggests placement of a distribution center. The available workers, if few, are highly skilled, he says.

Empty fruit packing houses in Okanogan County have enormous expanses of ready-made industrial space, Tortorelli says.

Patrick Malone, a program associate for the Partnership for Rural Development, says keeping small towns vibrant depends on nurturing home-grown enterprises, not recruiting newcomers. Residents raised to be self-reliant need more economic development tools to succeed, he says.

With skilled labor is at a premium in Spokane, a satellite operation within an hour’s drive that puts work near an untapped labor pool might be a solution, Malone says, noting that good jobs for spouses are often the difference between staying rooted in a hometown or pulling up stakes.

Washington’s cities are doing so well economically officials are losing sight of small community needs, he says, as well as their capabilities.

Barcus notes that Medford, Ore., which once focused its economic development efforts on recruitment, has shifted to job training because available skilled workers are an attractive asset in themselves.

Outlying communities could also benefit from the flight of Spokane and Coeur d’Alene residents who want services within reach, but they can no longer tolerate the congestion and housing costs of urban and suburban living, he says.

The bright future he predicts for the Northwest as a whole will ultimately leave only a very few behind, Barcus says.

Compared with California, “We still have a huge advantage,” he says.

“Unless we screw things up, they will come.”