Giuliani, McCain to skip Iowa poll

MANCHESTER, N.H. – An Iowa straw poll that traditionally has served as an early benchmark in the Republican presidential nomination race lost much of its luster Wednesday, as first Rudolph Giuliani and then John McCain decided not to compete in it.

The straw poll, scheduled for Aug. 11, in past campaigns has drawn tens of thousands of Republicans to a state party gathering in Ames, Iowa. But candidates vying to run well have had to spend large sums of money to transport supporters to cast ballots.

Giuliani’s campaign, which has not stressed grass-roots organizing in Iowa and faced a potential setback in the straw poll, announced Wednesday morning it would not actively participate in the vote. Hours later, the McCain camp followed suit.

In previous straws polls, poor showings – especially by those struggling to break into the top tier of contenders – diminished some candidates’ political viability. In 1999, lackluster results in Ames helped end the campaigns of former Vice President Dan Quayle and Lamar Alexander (now a U.S. senator from Tennessee).

Giuliani calculated that skipping the straw poll would not significantly undermine his standing as the leader in national polls of the presidential preferences among GOP-leaning voters.

That prospect was bolstered by the similar move Wednesday afternoon by McCain.

With Giuliani and McCain quitting the straw poll – and with former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, expected to enter the presidential race soon, also likely to bypass it – that would leave Mitt Romney as the only leading GOP candidate committed to showing up in Ames.

The lack of top-tier competition could undercut a Romney victory, denying the former Massachusetts governor momentum from a win.

Giuliani advisers said the former New York mayor would save $3 million by skipping the straw poll. Giuliani adviser Jim Nussle called the event “a circus.”

“It’s not a serious event in the grand scheme of picking the nominee,” said Nussle, a former Iowa congressman.

Giuliani advisers said he still would compete aggressively in the Iowa caucuses, which kick off the Republican nomination race. The caucuses are scheduled for Jan. 14, but the date could be advanced.

Giuliani has devoted less attention than several rivals to building a strong operation in Iowa. His liberal views on social issues have constrained his ability to appeal to conservatives in the state.

The withdrawal from the straw poll by McCain, the senior senator from Arizona, was announced by his presidential campaign manager, Terry Nelson.

He said that in light of Giuliani’s move, it was clear that the straw poll “will not be a meaningful test of the leading candidates’ organizational abilities, so we have decided to forgo our participation in the event.”

Nelson also stressed that McCain would keep working hard to win the caucuses.

Several longshot GOP candidates are hoping to score a breakthrough by doing well in the straw poll – among them, former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson, Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo.