Giuliani courting a less-skeptical GOP

WASHINGTON – The 2008 presidential campaign is weeks old, but an article of faith within the Republican Party – the belief that no politician who favors abortion rights and gay rights can win the GOP nomination – is being challenged by the candidacy of former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani.

The man named Time magazine’s “Person of the Year” for his response to the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks is leading in a slew of national polls and testing whether cultural and religious conservatives in the GOP will support a candidate who offers strong leadership on security and terrorism rather than ideological purity on social issues.

“This is the first Republican presidential primary since Sept. 11,” said Ed Gillespie, a former Republican National Committee chairman who is neutral in the nominating battle. “Rudy Giuliani is a candidate who can clearly test the proposition that a Republican who is more moderate on social issues can capture the nomination. He’s testing it now.”

Whit Ayres, a Georgia-based Republican pollster, said he has been struck by the number of conservatives he encountered who disagree with Giuliani on abortion or gay rights but are still attracted to him. The issue is whether that appeal can survive campaign scrutiny of Giuliani’s New York record, his position on issues, his three marriages and his complex business dealings.

“It truly is the question in Republican presidential politics at the moment,” Ayres said. “There are a lot of people with a more traditional view who think that his leading in the polls is just a mirage and that he has no real chance. I don’t believe that. I think there’s more to this than simply name ID.”

Many GOP strategists still question whether Giuliani can win. In a speech Friday at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington, Giuliani highlighted his record as a tax cutter, crime fighter and welfare reformer. But he offered little resembling a traditional conservative agenda for the future. The speech won a polite response from the audience of activists.

Still, the former mayor’s decision to show up at a conference the other leading candidate for the nomination, Arizona Sen. John McCain, skipped, might earn him some goodwill.

His strength in recent national and some state polls already has prompted many strategists, including some in rival camps, to re-examine their own long-held assumptions. And with President Bush’s approval ratings still low, Republicans are looking for a winner.

For months, McCain has been seen as the closest thing there is to a front-runner in the Republican contest. But Giuliani has emerged not only as the popular choice, but also as the Republican candidate most highly regarded by the American people.

The latest Washington Post-ABC News poll showed Giuliani leading McCain by 44 percent to 21 percent, with former House speaker Newt Gingrich at 15 percent and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney at 4 percent. A month ago, Giuliani’s lead was a much narrower 34-27 percent. Without Gingrich in the field, the most recent poll showed Giuliani’s margin over McCain was 53-23 percent.

A veteran Republican strategist, who asked not to be identified, said he is among those who long have believed a Republican with Giuliani’s profile would have no chance to win. He still believes the former mayor faces significant obstacles, but said the odds are not as remote as they once seemed.

He cited three reasons: the absence of a strong, traditional conservative in the GOP field; continuing antipathy among many social and religious conservatives toward McCain; and the looming prospect of New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton becoming the next president.

Giuliani “looks like he can beat Hillary, make the party competitive again in the Northeast, competitive again in California and allow us to keep our strong electoral advantage in the South and Rocky Mountain states,” he said.

The former mayor’s campaign team believes they have found a credible path to the nomination. Its foundation is a conclusion that while the overwhelming majority of Republicans differ with Giuliani on abortion, gay rights and guns, a much smaller percentage of GOP primary voters – perhaps no more than a quarter – are single-issue voters who would never vote for him because of his views on those issues, a percentage born out by the latest Post-ABC News poll.

Giuliani advisers see that as a reason for optimism, arguing that those findings leave a significant majority of the party open to his candidacy and the more he can emphasize his conservatism on issues like taxes, welfare and crime, as well has his leadership on national security issues, the more they are likely to back him.

“Rudy Giuliani and Republican voters are going to find a tremendous amount of common ground on a wide variety of issues important to Republican voters,” said Mike DuHaime, Giuliani’s campaign manager.

That raises the question of what it would say about the Republican Party if Giuliani were to become the nominee. Joe Gaylord, a GOP strategist close to former House speaker Newt Gingrich, said Giuliani has well-deserved celebrity appeal from his Sept. 11 performance that is a powerful attribute in the current environment. But he gave voice to something other Republican strategists are saying, which is that if Giuliani were to win the nomination, “This is a different Republican Party than I know.”