Mid-majors look for a special invite or two

INDIANAPOLIS – Missouri State coach Barry Hinson vividly recalls that Sunday night last March. So certain his team would make the NCAA tournament, Hinson invited a CBS crew to capture the celebration live.

Then came reality: The Bears were bitterly disappointed when their name didn’t appear in the 65-team tournament field.

“I remember going to the Final Four and Tubby Smith came up to me and said ‘I felt really bad for you, you looked like you were almost crying,’ ” Hinson said. “I told him, ‘If the camera was on me for another 15 seconds, you would have seen me bawling.’ “

For America’s midmajor programs, this is what Selection Sunday has become – a day filled with more doubt than relief.

Whether it was Butler being left out after winning 25 games in 2002 or Utah State missing the cut in 2004 after being ranked No. 25 in the final poll, the stories sound strikingly familiar.

Conventional wisdom traditionally has knocked these no-name schools because they have few marquee wins, low RPI ratings, play in weak leagues and have a track record of only moderate success on the NCAA’s biggest stage.

Conference tourney winners still typically find themselves facing prohibitive favorites in the tournament, and the few lucky ones who do earn one of the 34 at-large bids often seem to be written off as undeserving showdogs.

This year, coaches such as Hinson believe it could be different.

With two schools from the Missouri Valley Conference reaching last year’s regional semifinals and little-known George Mason of the Colonial Athletic Association finally giving the mid-majors a Final Four team, schools such as Missouri State and Old Dominion now believe they have a better chance of being included.

“I think that gave credence and credibility to what the committee does because when they gave bids to some of the non-BCS schools, they were criticized for it,” said Old Dominion coach Blaine Taylor. “I think those schools proved them (critics) wrong.”

The question as the 10-member selection committee debated options leading to today’s announcement was whether last year’s success of Bradley, Wichita State and George Mason proved there actually is more parity in college basketball.

Bradley reached the regional semifinals, and Wichita State lost to George Mason in the Washington Regional semifinal.

As usual, the selection committee chairman acknowledges last year’s success will not factor into this year’s decisions.

“Given my own background in the investment business, I’d have to say that past performance is no guarantee of future results,” said Gary Walters, this year’s chairman and the athletic director at Princeton.

But even the most guarded coaches believe that could be difficult.

“I think they try to avoid looking at last year,” Taylor said. “But I do think people are human and you do have memories. You might not want to put it on paper, but it puts it in their psyches.”

Coaches around the country believe things are changing. Many say recruiting at the mid-majors has improved and that more prep prospects will listen to their sales pitch. They believe coaching techniques and confidence also are getting a boost at the midmajor level.

And those same coaches have found scheduling, long a problem for successful programs such as Southern Illinois and Butler, has become more challenging because big-name schools are more leery of risking perceived upsets – even at home.

“It’s funny because six or seven months ago if you went through the list of schools who were looking for games, it was Air Force and Wright State and Butler and Nevada and Oral Roberts and all of the Missouri Valley schools,” Hinson said. “Now you look up and you know why.”

Ultimately, though, that answer lies with 10 people sealed off in an Indianapolis hotel, and the answer won’t come until the nationally televised selection show airs this afternoon.

Hinson has endured the agony twice, in 2000 and 2006, being left out both times. This time, Hinson believes Missouri State has made a stronger case by excelling in a conference that proved last year it can play with the big boys when the stakes are high.

After last year’s disappointment, Hinson will take nothing for granted. While still cameras will be permitted to capture his team’s reaction this year, live television will not.

“I feel better about this year,” Hinson said. “The one thing last year proved is that in college basketball, unlike college football, anyone on any given night can beat anybody else. College basketball has been designed literally, and figuratively, for March Madness and now most everyone has good players. I just hope our bubble is pretty strong.”