Bowl berth could still be forthcoming
BERKELEY, Calif. – As disappointed as the Washington State Cougars were trudging off the field last Saturday night – a chance for back-to-back upsets had just slipped through their hands – the day wasn’t a total loss.
Believe it or not, the Cougars’ bowl chances may have actually improved.
OK, we know you spit your coffee all over the paper, so while you search for a paper towel to clean up the mess, we will explain.
Sure, a win would have really given WSU’s bowl hopes a rocket-like boost. And sure, the Cougars squandered a reasonable chance for that win against a superior team.
But with what went on in the other four conference games, WSU still has a shot to go bowling if it wins its last three games, all of which will be played within Washington’s state borders.
That’s despite the Cougars’ 1-5 Pac-10 record and an overall mark of 3-6. Call it a tribute to the conference’s balance – or mediocrity, whatever your point of view – and the good fortune of being locked into six bowls if you want, but WSU is still in the hunt.
Here’s why, with a school-by-school breakdown:
No. 3 Oregon (8-1, 5-1), No. 9 Arizona State (8-1, 5-1) No. 12 USC (7-2, 4-2) and No. 24 Cal (6-3, 3-3) are going bowling, it’s just a matter of figuring out where.
Which leaves six teams fighting for two spots (or three, but we’ll get into that at the end).
UCLA (5-4, 4-2): It looks from here the Bruins aren’t going anywhere for the holidays. Their final three games are against ASU and Oregon at home and USC in the Coliseum. The way the Bruins have been playing, look for them to finish 5-7 and ineligible for the postseason.
Stanford (3-6, 2-5): The Cardinal will be eliminated Saturday if they lose at WSU. Such an outcome is necessary if the Cougars are to reach the postseason. For sake of argument, let’s say it happens and let’s say Stanford finishes 4-8 (we’ll assume the Cardinal defeat Notre Dame and lose to Cal) and also out of the bowl picture.
Arizona (4-6, 3-4): The Wildcats have played better the past two weeks, but they have the toughest finish, hosting Oregon and traveling up Interstate 10 to ASU. Both should be losses, leaving UA 4-8 and home after Dec. 2.
Washington (3-6, 1-5): The Huskies play 13 games this season but that won’t be their undoing – though it doesn’t help. A loss at Oregon State on Saturday will seal UW’s fate, then it will play out the string with Cal and WSU at home – OK, when has an Apple Cup been part of ‘playing out the string?’ – and No. 14 Hawaii in Honolulu on Dec. 1.
Oregon State (5-4, 3-3): The Beavers are the wild card as far as WSU is concerned. They should defeat UW to get to six wins, becoming conditionally bowl eligible. But if they were to lose in Pullman in two weeks – another must-win for WSU – and then at Oregon two weeks later, they finish 6-6, 4-5 in conference.
Which brings us to …
Washington State (3-6, 1-5): If the Cougars can take care of Stanford and OSU at home (they should be favored vs. the former and a slight underdog to the latter), then they will travel to the Apple Cup with a bowl berth at stake. Over the years that hasn’t been the best scenario for either team – look at last season for a recent lesson – but it’s the best the Cougs can hope for right now. If they can find a way to win in Seattle, they are 6-6, 4-5, probably tied with Oregon State.
With two bowl slots still available, under this scenario, both OSU and WSU are on their way to someplace at least semi-warm before the holidays.
But there could be one more slot available for the conference, though it might be tough to get – or fill.
If Oregon wins out and LSU or Ohio State stumble down the stretch, the Ducks will be in the BCS championship game (they are third in the latest BCS standings). And if Arizona State can find a way to win its final three – possible but maybe not probable – against UCLA, USC and Arizona, there’s a good shot the Sun Devils will end up in the BCS picture as well.
That would give the Pac-10 seven slots. Will it have seven eligible teams? That’s still to be seen. But one thing that seems certain, win out, and WSU should be bowling. Who would have thought?