Passing fancy: Elite quarterbacks make AFC favorites over NFC

NEW YORK – Peyton Manning vs. Rex Grossman.

That was the quarterback matchup when Indianapolis beat Chicago last February to finally win the Super Bowl. And in many ways, it represents the difference between the AFC (strong) and the NFC (weaker) when the 2007 season starts on Sept. 6.

In fact, that “traditional” Thursday opener – traditional in that it’s now in its sixth season – is one of the few games between top teams in the two conferences where the QB matchup is relatively even. It features Drew Brees and New Orleans at Manning and the Colts.

Even Brees is an ex-AFCer, coming over last season from San Diego to lead the Saints to the NFC title game after their miserable 3-13 record in 2005, during which they were made homeless by Hurricane Katrina.

The buildup to the season has been eclipsed by the off-field troubles of Michael Vick, Pacman Jones and others who have fallen afoul of the law and commissioner Roger Goodell’s tough disciplinary policies. It has become a preoccupation for almost everyone around the NFL, the commissioner most of all, although he hardly welcomes it.

“I don’t think it’s overshadowing the season. I think our fans are excited about football,” says Goodell, who in his first year as commissioner has become as high-profile as his most famous (and notorious) players. But he acknowledged: “I understand the interest in that story.”

Or as Falcons owner Arthur Blank said after Vick, his star quarterback, pleaded guilty to dogfighting charges: “Most football people I talk to have more important matters in the football world and like to talk about football.”

Starting next week, football will take the spotlight. Hopefully. And not only in the United States, but for a week in London, where on Oct. 28 the New York Giants and Miami Dolphins will play the first regular-season game in Europe, a Dolphins home game.

The main story line, at least at the start of the schedule, is the discrepancy between the conferences — although the parity in the NFL and the knowledge that a key injury or two can completely dismantle a team’s hopes often make story lines irrelevant by Week 2 or 3.

Still, the inequality is evident by the fact the defending champion Colts are rated no better than third in the AFC behind New England and San Diego in most preseason forecasts. Add in Baltimore and the conference might have four teams better than anyone in the NFC, including the defending conference champion Bears.

Chicago gave a decent account of itself in a 29-17 loss to the Colts in the Super Bowl. But until Grossman (or Brian Griese) establishes himself as a Super-Bowl caliber quarterback, the Bears will be a question mark.

Other than Brees, the top QBs in the league are in the AFC, starting with Manning and New England’s Tom Brady and Cincinnati’s Carson Palmer. Plus youngsters Philip Rivers of San Diego and Ben Roethlisberger of Pittsburgh.

The NFC’s QBs are more iffy. The best besides Brees, Philadelphia’s Donovan McNabb, showed signs in an exhibition game last week of problems with a knee on which he underwent surgery eight months ago.

Of course, there’s 37-year-old Brett Favre in Green Bay, who may be in his final season and, coming off a bounce-back year, is six touchdown passes short of Dan Marino’s career mark. Beyond him are a lot of unknown quantities.

That includes the Giants’ Eli Manning, Peyton’s brother, who has looked good in preseason and gained leadership points by taking on his retired teammate, Tiki Barber after Barber suggested on NBC that Manning wasn’t much of a leader. It also includes two other improving youngsters who, like Eli Manning, were high draft picks: San Francisco’s Alex Smith and Arizona’s Matt Leinart. Plus Tony Romo, who became Dallas’ starter in the sixth game last year, started fast, but finished slowly.

There’s no surprise who’s the 2007 favorite: New England, winner of three of four Super Bowls between the 2001-2004 seasons.

Despite no wide receivers of much merit and a banged-up secondary, the Brady-led Patriots got to the AFC championship game last season by upsetting San Diego, and led the Colts 21-3 in Indianapolis before finally losing 38-34 for the AFC crown. In the offseason, the Pats added linebacker Adalius Thomas, coach Bill Belichick’s kind of versatile player, plus the wideouts they desperately needed: Donte’ Stallworth, Wes Welker and the former megastar, Randy Moss.

The other principal AFC contenders also have bigger questions.

For San Diego, which had the conference’s best record last season at 14-2, it’s a coaching change – Norv Turner for Marty Schottenheimer. The Chargers also lost both coordinators to head coaching jobs: Wade Phillips (defense) to Dallas and Cam Cameron (offense) to Miami.

The players seem to be there for Turner, led by LaDainian Tomlinson, who set a record for touchdowns scored last season and was the NFL’s MVP. The offense also includes Rivers, who stood out in his first season as a starter, tight end Antonio Gates, and one of the game’s better offensive lines. The defense is led by third-year linebacker Shawne Merriman, who is on his way to becoming an elite playmaker.

The Bears and Saints, who met in the NFC title game last season, are the de facto favorites in the NFC.

Chicago gets back safety Mike Brown, who missed most of last season with injury, and tackle Tommie Harris. It’s hoping explosive return man Devin Hester can become an option at receiver in his second season.

But the Bears will miss defensive tackle Tank Johnson, cut after being suspended for eight games by Goodell for violating probation on a gun charge. And there’s always the Grossman question; even when he plays well, he doesn’t. In a preseason game against San Francisco, he threw for 211 yards in a half that the Bears put up 31 points, but was criticized for throwing an interception returned for a touchdown.

New Orleans’ questions are on defense. But Brees and the running back tandem of Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister make the offense explosive enough to make up for lapses there. And two years removed from Katrina, the Saints remain sentimental favorites – they finished 10-6 and won the South last season after going 3-13 in that hurricane displaced season.