Iraq Study Group experts reconvene, see little progress
WASHINGTON – A new assessment of U.S. policy in Iraq by the same experts who advised the original Iraq Study Group concludes political progress is “so slow, halting and superficial” and political fragmentation “so pronounced” that the United States is no closer to being able to leave Iraq than it was a year ago.
The experts were reassembled by the U.S. Institute of Peace, which convened the congressionally mandated Iraq Study Group, a high-level panel that assessed U.S. policy in Iraq and offered recommendations in 2006.
The new report predicts lasting political development could take five to 10 years of “full, unconditional commitment” to Iraq, but also cautions that future progress may not be worth the “massive” human and financial costs to the United States.
Some recent favorable developments in Iraq come from factors “that are outside U.S. control” and susceptible to rapid change, the report said, including the cease-fire by Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and the new Sunni Awakening councils made up of former insurgents and tribal leaders opposed to the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.
The report, obtained by the Washington Post, is due for release today.
It outlines two options should Washington seek to reduce its Iraq commitment.
The first option would peg U.S. engagement to Iraq’s agreement to decentralize power to its provinces, leaving the Baghdad government in charge of national defense and revenue distribution only. If Iraq fails to act, however, Washington should “cut its losses” and work out a withdrawal schedule; if Iraq complies, the United States should maintain a reduced troop presence to train the army and police.
The second option is unconditional redeployment of all U.S. forces in Iraq, possibly beginning in January and completed by 2011. At the same time, however, Washington would build an “enhanced” military presence in the region and stronger regional alliances, while providing political support for the Baghdad government.