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The Spokesman-Review Newspaper
Spokane, Washington  Est. May 19, 1883

Look for weather pattern to change

The Spokesman-Review

The question that I’m hearing over and over is, “When will all of this snow and cold weather come to an end?” At this writing the total snowfall at the Spokane International Airport will probably be near 70 inches. I still don’t think we’ll challenge the all-time record of 93.5 inches during the 1949-50 season.

In Coeur d’Alene, the seasonal total will have likely exceeded 125 inches, breaking the all-time seasonal record of 124.2 inches set in 1915-16. To the north and east of Coeur d’Alene, towns like Rathdrum and Athol have seen more than 150 inches of snow for the season with 4 to 5 feet still on the ground.

Last week, I thought that the world-famous groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil would not see his shadow as that part of the country was experiencing a series of storms parading through the region. But when old Phil was hauled out of his fake tree stump on Gobbler’s Knob, he was quickly scared back into his manmade den when he saw his shadow.

According to weather folklore, when Phil sees his shadow, it means at least six more weeks of winter. The locals say that Phil has an accuracy rating near 90 percent in his forecasts. Well, I was hoping this forecast would be different.

But, I do believe that we’re going to see a different type of weather pattern beginning as early as this weekend. I’m calling for decreasing snows and temperatures rising well into the 40s within the next week. A milder upper-level jet stream zonal flow from the eastern Pacific Ocean regions will soon produce bigger thaws over the next two to four weeks.

As mentioned in previous columns, the cooler than normal sea-surface temperature event in the south-central Pacific Ocean, La Niña, has been at least partially responsible for the snowy and cold weather pattern here in the Inland Northwest. However, the latest information now indicates that La Niña is showing signs of weakening. During the December through mid-January period, this phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean strengthened rapidly, which enhanced our snowy weather pattern this winter.

If La Niña continues to weaken, and I think it will, we should continue to see more moisture, but much milder temperatures. This would not be good news for those living in flood-prone areas. The National Weather Service says that this abundance of snow is like “a time bomb waiting to go off” in terms of flooding near the streams. The Water Resources Board is also concerned about area flooding over the next few months. Based on current weather patterns and cycles, Idaho climatologist Cliff Harris and I believe that there is a 70 percent chance of widespread flooding problems due to the excessive snow, especially the higher mountains. What we need is a gradual warming of temperatures with very little rain and wind in order to give the ground and streams the chance to absorb all of that moisture.

It looks like we’re going to see milder weather with more rain than snow between now and the middle of March.