U.S. Hispanic population is on pace to triple

The number of Hispanics in the United States will triple by 2050 and represent nearly 30 percent of the population if trends continue, according to a report released Monday.

The study by the nonpartisan, Washington-based Pew Research Center also found that nearly one in five Americans will be foreign-born in 2050, compared with about one in eight today. Asian-Americans, representing 5 percent of the population today, are expected to boost their share to 9 percent.

Blacks are projected to maintain their current 13 percent share. Non-Hispanic whites will still be the nation’s largest group, but they will drop from 67 percent of U.S. residents to 47 percent.

Overall, the U.S. population will increase by 47 percent from 296 million in 2005 to 438 million by 2050, with newly arriving immigrants accounting for 47 percent of the rise, and their U.S.-born children and grandchildren 35 percent.

The report offers a picture of the possible long-term effects of the immigration surge that began after 1965, when Congress ended a quota system that had nearly eliminated immigration from non-European countries since the 1920s.

Because of a declining birthrate among U.S.-born women, immigrants and their U.S.-born children and grandchildren already account for most of the population increase over the last several decades. The study projects that by 2025, the foreign-born share of the population will surpass the peak recorded during the wave of immigration between 1860 and 1920, when foreign-born residents represented as much as 15 percent of the U.S. population.

But the study’s authors said immigration will do little to offset the more than doubling of the nation’s elderly population as baby boomers age. By 2050, people older than 65 will make up 19 percent of the population, compared with 12 percent in 2005, while the share of working-age people will shrink from 63 percent to 58 percent.

Today, there are about 59 children or elderly people per 100 working-age adults. By 2050, that figure will increase to 72 dependents per 100 working-age adults.

Those who oppose allowing immigration to continue at its current pace interpreted the findings as vindication.

“These numbers underline the fact that immigration is not a solution to the aging of the population,” said Mark Krikorian, of the Center for Immigration Studies, which favors further limits on immigration.

The study’s authors noted that even if their projections are accurate, the implications may be different by 2050: Given the high rate of intermarriage between Latinos and members of other ethnic groups, many descendants of today’s Latinos may not even identify as such.