Spring should be cooler than normal

Today is the first full day of spring and it still feels like winter.

As we approach the last week of March, there is still more than 10 feet of snow in parts of the higher mountains. A big warm-up with strong winds and heavy rains arriving from the Pacific by early- to mid April could lead to widespread lowland flooding, particularly near lakes and streams.

It’s also possible that we will see afternoon thermometer readings soar to near 70 degrees at many stations in our region by the third week of April. However, the overall spring season should be cooler than normal with above-normal amounts of precipitation. The summer season should be nice, although with more moisture during June through August than during the same period last year.

, The tropical storm and hurricane season officially begins June 1, and at this point, it appears the season may be more active than normal.

Since the middle of 2007, global weather patterns have been influenced by La Niña, the cooler than normal sea-surface temperature event in the equatorial regions. Within the last month, ocean waters in the south-central Pacific have been warming, indicating that La Niña is weakening.

In the Atlantic and Caribbean, sea-surface temperatures are at near-normal levels, but warmer than average in the Gulf of Mexico. This recent rise in ocean temperatures would help intensify tropical storm development.

For the 2008 season, I predict 18 to 21 named storms with 12 of them becoming hurricanes. Four of these potentially deadly storms are expected to become major hurricanes, reaching at least a Category 3 status.

The overall average is 10 named storms with six becoming hurricanes during the season, which begins on June 1 and ends Nov. 30.

An above-average number of tropical storms and hurricanes are expected as well in the eastern Pacific, especially south of Baja in Mexico.

The 2005 tropical storm and hurricane season was the most active in recorded history. Named storms in the Atlantic and Caribbean started to be logged in 1851. Up until 2005, the most active hurricane season was in 1933 with 21 storms reaching tropical storm status or greater. In 1995, there were 19 named storms. In 2005 and early 2006, we saw a record 27 named storms. Also, for the first time, the entire list of names were used so Greek letters were implemented ending with Hurricane Zeta, the strongest and most long-lasting January hurricane in recorded history.

As far as the number of hurricanes, the 2005 season also broke the record with 14 storms. Seven of these hurricanes were considered to be major. The previous record was 12 in 1969. The 2005 hurricane season will go into the record books as the costliest ever.

Only three Category 5 storms have hit the U.S. mainland over the last 100 years – Camille in 1969, Andrew in 1992 and the Labor Day storm (no name) of 1935. Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma in 2005 did reach Category 5 status, but weakened before they made landfall.

In 2006, there were 10 named storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes. There were 15 named storms in 2007 , including six hurricanes, two of which were Category 3 or above.