Earth’s warming trend on schedule

Until recently, global temperatures were more than a degree warmer when compared with the overall 20th century mean. From August 2007 through February 2008, the Earth’s mean reading dropped to near the 200-year average temperature of 57 degrees.

I believe the warming and even the cooling of global temperatures are the result of long-term climatic cycles, solar activity, sea-surface temperature patterns and more. However, mankind’s activities of burning fossil fuels, massive deforestations, the replacing of grassy surfaces with asphalt and concrete, the “urban heat island effect,” are making conditions worse and will ultimately enhance the Earth’s warming process in the next several decades.

From the late 1940s through the early 1970s, a climate research organization called the Weather Science Foundation of Crystal Lake, Ill., determined that the planet’s warm, cold, wet and dry periods were the result of alternating short-term and long-term climatic cycles. These researchers and scientists also concluded that the Earth’s ever-changing climate likewise has influenced global and regional economies, human and animal migrations, science, religion and the arts as well as shifting forms of government and strength of leadership.

Much of this data was based research done by Raymond H. Wheeler and his associates during the 1930s and 1940s at Kansas State University. Wheeler was well-known for his discovery of various climate cycles, including his highly-regarded “510-Year Drought Clock” that he detailed at the end of the Dust Bowl era in the late 1930s.

In the early 1970s, during a time of colder weather, the Weather Science Foundation predicted, based on these various climate cycles, that our planet would turn much warmer and wetter by the early 2000s, resulting in general global prosperity. The foundation also said we would be seeing widespread weather extremes. There’s little doubt that most of their early predictions came true.

The recent decline in the Earth’s temperature may be a combination of both long-term and short-term climate cycles, decreased solar activity and the development of a strong long-lasting La Niña, the current cooler than normal sea-surface temperature event in the south-central Pacific Ocean. Sunspot activity in the past 18 months has decreased the lowest levels since “The Little Ice Age” ended in the mid- to late 1800s. This cool spell, though, may only be a brief interruption to the Earth’s overall warming trend. Only time will tell.

Based on predictions from the Weather Science Foundation, it appears much warmer readings may be expected for Earth, especially by the 2030s, that will eventually top 1998’s global highest reading of 58.3 degrees. It’s possible we could see an average temperature in the low 60s. Until then, this cooling period may last from just a few months to as long as several years, especially if sunspot activity remains low.

As far as our near-term weather is concerned, the calendar says spring, but it still feels like winter. Milder weather is expected in early- to mid-April. However, too much warming along with strong winds and heavy rains arriving from the Pacific could lead to widespread lowland flooding, particularly near lakes and streams. As of early this week, there is still more than 10 feet of snow in parts of the higher mountains.

It’s also possible that we will see afternoon readings soar to near 70 degrees at many stations in our region by the end of April. But, the overall spring season should be cooler than normal with above normal amounts of precipitation. More details next week.