ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. – The top Democratic and Republican presidential contenders, Barack Obama and John McCain, brought their campaigns to the deserts of the American West Monday, kicking off what is shaping up to be a fierce contest for the region in November.
Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico were among the most tightly contested states of 2000 and 2004, although they were often overshadowed by Florida and Ohio.
Four years ago, President Bush defeated Democrat John F. Kerry in the three states by a combined 127,011 votes – just 8,412 votes more than his margin in Ohio. Had Kerry won the three Western battlegrounds, he would be president today.
With political winds blowing their direction across the region, Democrats see an opportunity to win those states. That could be especially important as Obama’s prospects dim in onetime eastern swing states such as West Virginia.
“There are a limited number of possibilities to change the electoral map for Democrats,” said Mark Mellman, a longtime Democratic strategist. “These three states figure prominently.”
However, the Democratic presidential nominee has won all three states – Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico – once in the last 40 years.
In McCain, the Republicans have their first Western nominee in a quarter century. The Arizona senator, whose independent streak and strong military credentials have always played well in the region, is aggressively defending his turf.
On Monday, McCain traveled to Albuquerque, where he gave a spirited defense of his commitment to veterans – despite opposing Senate legislation to increase college aid for those who have served in the military. And he renewed his warning about a premature exit from Iraq, although he tried to distance himself from the Bush administration with criticisms of the handling of the war and mistreatment of veterans in military hospitals.
“The American people have grown sick and tired of the war in Iraq,” McCain said as he stood under white awnings at the New Mexico Veterans Memorial, the Sandia Mountains rising in the distance. “I, too, have been made heartsick by the many mistakes made by civilian and military commanders – and the terrible price we have paid for them.”
McCain then urged patience. “As long as there is a reasonable prospect for succeeding in this war then we must not choose to lose it,” he said.
Two hours later, Obama gave his own Memorial Day speech in New Mexico’s second largest city, Las Cruces, where he criticized the administration’s failure to maintain military staffing levels and care for veterans after they return home.
“They are not being diagnosed quickly enough, they are not getting the services that they need quickly enough,” the Illinois senator said, adding that female veterans “are being most neglected in this area.”
Obama called for creation of facilities specifically to serve their needs. “Oftentimes our women service members are more prone to post-traumatic stress disorder, partly because there’s a sad but real problem of sexual harassment and sexual abuse.”
Both men are scheduled to make stops in Nevada and Colorado over the next two days. Bush will travel to the Southwest today to raise money for McCain and other Republicans in New Mexico and Arizona.
“This game is on,” said Joe Monahan, an independent political analyst in New Mexico who said Monday’s visits would likely be the first of many. Four years ago, Kerry and Bush each saw political opportunity in the demographics of the desert. New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada have a combined 19 Electoral College votes, as compared to 20 for Ohio and 21 for Pennsylvania.
Democrats ran aggressive organizing campaigns to bring in new voters in growing metropolitan areas. And the GOP furiously went after Latino voters and mobilized conservative rural voters who have made most of the inland West reliably Republican in recent decades.
By some estimates, Bush won as much as 44 percent of the Hispanic vote in New Mexico. “That cost John Kerry the state,” said Brian Sanderoff, an independent pollster who has been measuring public opinion in the state for a quarter century.
A similar strategy helped Bush take Nevada and Colorado, where he offset Kerry’s margins in Las Vegas and Denver.
This year, there are signs of Democratic momentum in the region as the party has taken statehouses and congressional seats.
In Colorado, Democrats have won control of the state Legislature and the governor’s mansion and picked up a Senate seat and two House seats in the last two elections.
Obama also is poised to emerge from a competitive Democratic primary campaign against Hillary Rodham Clinton that brought out tens of thousands of new voters.
In Nevada – where Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and the powerful Culinary Union have been building an increasingly powerful Democratic political machine – the party enjoys a nearly 52,000-voter registration advantage. Four years ago, there were nearly 12,000 more active registered Republicans than Democrats in Nevada, according to the secretary of state’s office.
McCain also doesn’t enjoy the same relationship with rural conservatives that Bush was able to count on.
And his positions favoring nuclear waste storage in Yucca Mountain and against some sports betting put him on the wrong side of two issues that are important to many Nevadans.
“You could run a pretty decent campaign against the guy,” said political columnist Jon Ralston.
Republicans nonetheless enter the battle for the West with distinct advantages.
As a native son and war hero with a record of pushing immigration reform, McCain has an entree with Hispanic voters, who many strategists believe will be critical again this election.
On Monday, his campaign released a Web ad targeting Hispanic veterans. And McCain strategist Charles Black said the Arizona senator would continue to focus on those voters in the months ahead.
Obama, in contrast, has struggled to win support among Latinos throughout the primary season.
Speaking to reporters Monday in Las Cruces, he acknowledged the challenge. “We’re going to have to work hard to get known by the voters in this region. But I think the message of changing Washington, delivering on universal health care, having an energy policy that is actually coherent, I think that is all critically important to the people here.”
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