Food prices expected to remain high globally

PARIS – Uncertain weather, rising demand in developing countries and the increased use of grains for biofuel will likely keep food prices higher than average over the next 10 years and make it harder for the world’s poorest countries to feed themselves.

In their latest annual assessment of global agriculture, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said the current record levels for grain, milk, oils and other staples will likely fall as drought conditions abate in major grain-producing countries and as higher food prices encourage production in others.

But, for a variety of reasons, the agencies said that high food prices are likely here to stay: Between 2008 and 2017, beef and pork are likely to cost about 20 percent more than they did between 1998 and 2007; milk, wheat and corn are expected to cost as much as 60 percent more; vegetable oils as much as 80 percent more.

Those projections do not account for inflation. When overall price increases are taken into account, the cost of some types of food may actually fall, the agencies said.

However as the balance between the global demand and supply of food becomes tighter, the effect on prices “will differ across commodities.” The higher nominal cost of staples, meanwhile, will lead to “increased vulnerability” for the world’s poorest, the report concluded.

“There is strong reason to believe that there are now also permanent factors underpinning prices that will work to keep them both at higher average levels than in the past and reduce the long-term decline in real terms,” the 72-page report said.

Record-high food prices in recent months have touched off riots in some countries, prompted others to consider curbing exports to ensure domestic supply, and led consumers in even the developed world to change how they shop and eat.

Some of the reasons for the recent price spikes are short-term, the report noted, including adverse weather conditions that hit some of the world’s major grain producers.