Schick has the power to predict powder for skiers

During last year’s epic snow season we had the pleasure of skiing with a lovely lady: La Nina – the term meteorologists use to describe a cooling of waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It’s a weather phenomenon that triggers big snowstorms in the Northwest.

What can we expect this year? How soon can we start sliding? I asked someone who knows: Larry Schick, the self-proclaimed “Grand Pooh-bah of Powder” and author of Larry Schick’s Powder Alert, a free report available by e-mail subscription on skiwashington.com.

“November is turning out precipitation at or above normal, but the snow level is high right now,” Schick said. “The outlook depends on getting lower temperatures. I’m optimistic that some mountains could be partially open by Thanksgiving. If not, things certainly bode well for shortly after Thanksgiving.”

Schick is a West Side meteorologist and ski enthusiast who works in flood control for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. He alerts subscribers when a promising storm shows up off the coast.

Schick’s accurate, amusing report includes the probable duration, reach and accumulation of the storm. Although his focus is primarily on the Cascades, the storm track he writes about gets here eventually. It’s a great early-warning system.

“We’re in the middle of a very active weather pattern,” he said. “But overall, we’re in for a neutral winter. The neutral pattern doesn’t have a great signal. It’s not a bad signal, but not as predictable. Some people call it La Nada.”

La Nina, and her evil twin brother, El Nino, have a profound effect on the jet stream. There are two jet streams across the Pacific Ocean. The polar jet is a powerful engine for ocean storms. The tropical jet is a breeze by comparison, flowing across Mexico. In normal conditions, the polar jet points right at the Northwest in fall and winter.

Lovely La Nina tempts the polar jet to venture south, bringing even cooler air, bigger, more bountiful storms and lower snow levels.

Evil El Nino warms the waters in the equatorial Pacific, driving away the polar jet and leaving us high, dry and blue. The La Nina/El Nino cycle changes every one to two years. A complete cycle takes from three to seven years.

Now equatorial ocean temps are average. The polar jet is pointing right at us. But it will have a tendency to wobble a little bit north and south, portending a “normal” winter with a smorgasbord of weather: a few big storms, but more little ones; some long waits between powder days; and the occasional Pineapple Express. The National Weather Service predicts these conditions will hold well into next year.

“Sometimes people put too much weight in the long-range forecast,” Schick said. “My powder alert is short term. It provides information to help you stay flexible. With a day or a couple of days’ notice, you can take advantage of the storm.”

The Powder Alerts come out as far as seven days in advance. You can be sure it’s a high-quality forecast.

“I don’t send one out unless I’m really sure it’s going to happen,” Schick said. “I need a 98 percent confidence level that the pattern will conform to what the computer models are showing. Sometimes they fool you.”

Schick said that because his Powder Alerts are so accurate, when a deep snowfall happens without his warning some skiers think he’s holding back.

“If I don’t send out an alert and things turn out really good, some people razz me about hoarding it all for myself,” he said. “Sometimes I’m wrong, but most of the time I’m right.”

Let’s hope Schick gets a chance to prove himself, early and often.