November 20, 2008 in Voices

New satellite indicates cycle of global cooling

 

Several Canadian environmental scientists agree the new Jason satellite indicates at least a 23-year cycle of global cooling ahead.

This oceanographic satellite shows a much larger than normal persistent Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Cooler PDO phases usually last 21 to 25 years, so we could be quite chilly as a planet until at least 2030, maybe longer.

However, based on long-term climatic cycles, there is another cycle of intense global warming, due by 2031 to 2038, when many of our weather cycles “collide in chaos.”

These alternating natural climatic cycles defy the so-called climate consensus that human-emitted carbon dioxide was completely responsible for the recent cycle of global warming that began in the late 1970s and peaked in 1998. But, I do believe that human activities are enhancing environmental problems.

The Earth’s previous warming phase from 1915 through 1939, which peaked in 1936 creating the infamous Dust Bowl, was about as warm as the recent cycle of global warming.

The last cooler cycle of global temperatures occurred from late 1939 to early 1976, peaking (or bottoming) in 1973. The harsh winters during World War II helped the U.S. and its allies defeat the Germans and later assisted our GIs in the Korean War because of extremely heavy snows and subzero temperatures north of the 38th parallel.

In the past 10 years, especially the past couple of years, the Earth’s overall climate has cooled a bit, even though CO2 emissions have soared on a worldwide scale. However, as mentioned last week, temperatures continue to be much above normal in the Arctic regions. Only time will tell on where we go from here.

As far as our local weather is concerned, a parade of Pacific storms marched across the Inland Northwest during the first 13 days of November. Then high pressure moved into the region, giving us mostly dry and cool, mild afternoon temperatures.

Our overall weather pattern should turn toward the wetter side. I now see some measurable snowfall around the Thanksgiving holiday into early December. The first half of the winter should produce above normal amounts of snow.

Temperatures should be colder, however, with subzero readings expected around the Jan. 11-18 full moon cycle as a huge Arctic high pressure ridge moves in from the north into Eastern Washington and North Idaho as well as the surrounding regions of the Northwest.

It still looks better than a 50 percent chance of a brilliant white Christmas in the Inland Northwest, considerably higher probabilities than usual for the season.

Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com.


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