Rematch proving another close race

OLYMPIA – Time for round two.

Tonight on a scenic spit of land near the Canadian border, Gov. Chris Gregoire and Republican challenger Dino Rossi will again debate each other. It’s the second face-off of five that have been scheduled so far, including one Oct. 9 in Spokane.

In the first matchup last weekend in Seattle, Gregoire seemed more on the offensive than in 2004, determined to link Rossi to George Bush and blasting Rossi on the environment, embryonic stem cell research, and for what she called a “fantasy” plan to fix the state’s transportation woes.

Rossi seems to be sticking to the strategy that almost worked for him in 2004, when he came within 133 votes of beating Gregoire. He stuck more to broad themes, folksy stories and the occasional albeit obviously scripted joke, like when he said his campaign had a pool going for how many times Gregoire would mention Bush. Gregoire seemed to be heavier on details.

For months, most polls showed Gregoire consistently ahead of Rossi, although not by much. But three recent polls suggest that the contest is again looking like a very tight race. On Friday, the polling firm Strategic Vision said a survey of 800 likely voters showed Rossi ahead, 48 percent to Gregoire’s 46 percent. (The same poll showed Barack Obama beating John McCain here, 47 percent to 42 percent.)

Not helping Gregoire: the economy. After months of steadfastly pointing out that Washington was doing much better than large swaths of the nation, Gregoire recently changed her message, focusing instead on the Bush administration’s handling or lack thereof of the financial crisis that’s still reverberating on Wall Street and in Congress.

Rossi, however, continues to point at Gregoire. The state budget has risen more than 30 percent during her four years in office. That growth was possible because a humming economy, particularly a surge in real-estate taxes, was dumping billions more dollars than expected into the state treasury.

But now, retail sales are slumping. Real estate deals have plummeted. Although state revenues continue to go up lawmakers will have a projected $2.4 billion more to spend over the next two years, far less than the $5.6 billion increase that was expected. That leaves the state with a projected $3.2 billion “shortfall.”

Gregoire’s defense: she and Democratic lawmakers were investing in long-neglected things, like teacher pay, smaller class sizes, more health coverage for kids and early childhood education. She points out that they also set aside hundreds of millions of dollars in savings. And she’s recently been battening down the hatches, calling for a state hiring freeze, less gasoline use and delayed equipment purchases.

But two critical questions went largely unanswered at the first debate. For Gregoire: Will she raise taxes next year to cope with that huge projected shortfall? She repeatedly said “now is not the time” to be discussing tax hikes, and that no one is proposing that now. But she wouldn’t rule it out.

And for Rossi, who said he wouldn’t raise taxes: What state services and programs would he cut? He didn’t offer any specifics.

Both questions are likely to keep coming up between now and Nov. 4.

That form’s in the mail

This morning in Olympia, the state Public Disclosure Commission will take up the case of Chris Bowen, a Spokane Republican who’s running for a state House of Representatives seat. He’s challenging state Rep. Alex Wood, who got 62 percent of the vote in the August primary.

Candidates are required to file a candidacy form and a financial disclosure form with the agency, which serves as a campaign-finance watchdog. But Bowen hasn’t filed anything, according to the PDC. He faces up to a $300 fine.

Bowen insists he mailed the paperwork. He claims that the PDC lost it or that it was lost in the mail.

“This mishandling of my information is not new,” Bowen wrote back after I e-mailed to ask about this. “I have learned that I must make a smart choice that is ethical and sensible…So I have a great policy that allows me to do everything I am required to do, and at the same time not concern myself with others mistakes…I will fill out and return all required information, and then if someone still wants me to jump…well too bad…I did what I was asked…and now I am going to move forward.” (The ellipses are his.)

The PDC seems highly skeptical. The agency subsequently asked him to simply fax them a copy of the forms, according to the PDC’s Kurt Young.

“Nothing was forthcoming,” Young said. Nor did Bowen file the forms with Spokane County, he said.

Builders face lawsuits

Speaking of campaign finance, Attorney General Rob McKenna has filed lawsuits against two home-builders groups, saying the two failed to properly report hundreds of thousands of dollars in campaign contributions.

The problems were raised in a complaint to the Public Disclosure Commission by liberal critics of the building industry, a heavy spender on the campaigns of Dino Rossi and other conservative lawmakers.

“This trade association of ultra-conservative developers can run a ruthless campaign to elect Dino Rossi governor, but they are not above the law,” said Aaron Ostrom, executive director of the left-leaning political group Fuse. “The attorney general’s decision to enforce Washington’s campaign laws is a victory for the people of Washington.”

The Building Association of Washington said it didn’t knowingly break any of the state’s “nebulous and complicated rules.”

The group “has nothing to hide from the PDC, and we never have,” said BIAW spokeswoman Erin Shannon.

Who voted, who didn’t

A look at the turnout numbers from last month’s primary election suggests that despite the biennial vows of mobilizing the youth vote, the old truism of politics held true: older people vote more.

Lots more.

Fewer than one out of five voters ages 18 to 34 bothered to vote, for example. And even among those 35 to 44, turnout was just barely better than 1 in 4.

At the other end of the spectrum, however, a full 72 percent of those 65 or older cast a ballot.

And since a lot more older people are registered to vote, the numbers skew even further toward the elderly. In some counties, 18- to 24-year olds made up just 2 percent of the voters. In all counties, voters 65 or older accounted for at least a quarter of the voters. In some counties, those older voters comprised nearly half of all votes counted.

Eyman sends up another trial balloon

Initiative promoter Tim Eyman, who makes his living authoring and touting ballot measures, has dropped another potential one into the pipeline for next year.

On Monday, Eyman and Spokane associate Jack Fagan filed a still-unnumbered measure that would “reduce … regular property tax levies 25 percent and limit … property tax increases to 1 percent per year” unless voters decide otherwise.

Caveat: Eyman likes to try out several versions of a ballot measure each year before settling on one to back. So stay tuned.