September 18, 2008 in Voices

Low sunspot activity may signal harsh winter

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For those who keep an eye on celestial events such as sunspot activity, August was a remarkable month.

For the first time since June 1913, nearly a century ago, there were no visible spots (solar storms) on the surface of the sun. Solar activity remained at zero through Sept. 10. A small number of sunspots popped-up on Sept. 11, but from the 13th through the morning of the 16th, the sun returned to no activity.

The National Solar Observatory in Tucson, Ariz., predicted in 2005, after noting small spectroscopic and magnetic changes in the sun’s energy fields, that “within 10 years, sunspots would vanish entirely,” much like it did in the mid-1600s, when England’s Thames River froze over each winter.

From 1645 to 1715, sunpots became a rare event and this period was called the Maunder Minimum. During one 30-year period, astronomers observed approximately 50 sunspots, compared with a more typical 40,000 to 50,000 spots.

The big decrease in solar activity was blamed, at least in part, to the harsh winter of 2007-08 across our region and other parts of the northern U.S. With very little sunspot activity, a colder than normal winter season may be on tap for many parts of the Northern Hemisphere. During the late 1990s and early 2000s, solar activity was considered by many to be unusually high, enough to actually damage satellites and other communication devices.

Some scientists say that the sun should start to become more active with increasing sunspot numbers within the next few months. NASA solar physicist David Hathaway stated in a recent article, “The ongoing lull in sunspot numbers is well within historical norms for the solar cycle. The sun is now near the low point of its 11-year activity cycle. We call this Solar Minimum. It’s the period of quiet that separates one Solar Max from another.”

As for local weather, the current pattern of warm days and chilly nights will persist at least a while longer. A hard, garden-blackening freeze, even in the lower elevations, will still be possible in parts of the Inland Northwest from late September into early October. This time period should also bring an increasing chance of shower activity. The rest of October to the middle of November should be wetter than normal.

Conditions are still expected to turn a bit colder and snowier than usual from just after Thanksgiving to around the middle of January.

Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com.

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