Spokane7
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August 27, 2009 in Washington Voices
El Niño could mean less snow this winter
Over the past several weeks I’ve received a number of questions about what this coming winter will be like.
Well, I certainly don’t think we’re going to see record or near-record snowfall for a third year in a row, but with all these weather extremes, anything is possible.
There’s no question that the last two winters were a couple of the toughest in recorded history. The winter of 2007-’08 produced record snows across Idaho and parts of Eastern Washington. Spokane International Airport had 92.6 inches of snow, which was 0.9 inches from tying the all-time record.
When the snowfall season for 2008-’09 expired June 30, the airport had gauged an incredible 97.7 inches, smashing the record of 93.5 inches set in 1949-’50. The norm is 47.4 inches.
Last year, sea-surface temperatures along the equatorial regions were below normal levels. This cooler La Niña phenomenon likely contributed to the heavy snowfall across the Inland Northwest. This year, however, an El Niño – warmer-than-normal sea-surface temperature – developed off the west coast of South America.
During typical El Niño years, the upper-level jet-stream winds become stronger in the subtropical regions, while the northern polar jet stream becomes weaker. Much Pacific moisture that falls in our area is directed from the polar jet stream. Approximately 70 percent of the time, most of California and the southern U.S. receive above-normal moisture during an El Niño as the subtropical jet stream intensifies. The northern regions of the U.S. are usually milder and a bit drier than normal during winter.
Assuming El Niño maintains its strength, or intensifies over the next few months, this winter should be different from the past two. I expect to see widely fluctuating temperature patterns, from very mild readings to well below normal, in a relatively short period. Snowfall totals should be slightly below average as some of the moisture falls as rain. The chances of freezing rain or an ice storm will increase with a moderate to strong El Niño. Stay tuned.
In the meantime, another round of chilly and showery weather should arrive shortly after Labor Day. Our fall is expected to be cooler and wetter than normal.
Genesis Church finds new home 
smras on October 04 at 9:47 a.m.
Maybe the reporter should do their homework before writing speculative garbage like this?
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center: La Niña is back
September 8, 2011
La Niña, which contributed to extreme weather around the globe during the first half of 2011, has re-emerged in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is forecast to gradually strengthen and continue into winter. Today, forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center upgraded last month’s La Niña Watch to a La Niña Advisory.
NOAA will issue its official winter outlook in mid-October, but La Niña winters often see drier than normal conditions across the southern tier of the United States and wetter than normal conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley.
“This means drought is likely to continue in the drought-stricken states of Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center. “La Niña also often brings colder winters to the Pacific Northwest and the northern Plains, and warmer temperatures to the southern states.”
Climate forecasts from NOAA’s National Weather Service give American communities advance notice of what to expect in the coming months so they can prepare for potential impacts. This service is helping the country to become a Weather Ready Nation at a time when extreme weather is on the rise.
Seasonal hurricane forecasters factored the potential return of La Niña into NOAA’s updated 2011 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, issued in August, which called for an active hurricane season. With the development of tropical storm Nate this week, the number of tropical cyclones entered the predicted range of 14-19 named storms.
The strong 2010-11 La Niña contributed to record winter snowfall, spring flooding and drought across the United States, as well as other extreme weather events throughout the world, such as heavy rain in Australia and an extremely dry equatorial eastern Africa.
Average sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (degree C) for the week centered on Aug. 31, 2011, indicate the re-emergence of La Niña in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
Download here. (Credit: NOAA)
La Niña is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon located over the tropical Pacific Ocean and results from interactions between the ocean surface and the atmosphere. During La Niña, cooler-than-average Pacific Ocean temperatures influence global weather patterns. La Niña typically occurs every three-to-five years, and back-to-back episodes occur about 50 percent of the time. Current conditions reflect a re-development of the June 2010-May 2011 La Niña episode.
NOAA’s National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories. NOAA’s National Weather Service operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy. Visit us online at weather.gov and on Facebook.
NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.
alltheplants on October 27 at 8:48 a.m.
I’ve seen some poor reporting come out of this operation, but this takes the cake. If you were a snow skier, you’d know it was another LaNina year.
mikewsu on November 03 at 9:41 a.m.
Maybe you two geniuses should read the post date of this story.