Economic index keeps rising
Latest monthly gain beats analysts’ expectations
NEW YORK – More plans to build homes, higher stock prices and fewer people filing first-time claims for jobless aid sent a private-sector forecast of U.S. economic activity higher than expected in June.
It was the third straight monthly increase for the New York-based Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators, and another sign pointing toward the recession ending later this year.
The index rose 0.7 percent last month. Wall Street analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected a gain of 0.4 percent.
The group also said activity in the six-month period through June rose 2 percent, with an annual growth rate of 4.1 percent. That’s the strongest rate since the first quarter of 2006.
If these conditions continue, “expect a slow recovery this autumn,” said Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein.
The Conference Board’s leading indicators index bottomed in March after peaking in July 2007. The decline accelerated last fall after investment bank Lehman Brothers collapsed and credit markets froze.
“We’re now getting data which points to stabilization,” said Josh Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at research firm MFR Inc. “The overall signal they’re sending is the slide in economic activity is poised to end. The jury is still very much out in terms of what happens after that.”
Many analysts expect modest economic growth in the fourth quarter after the gross domestic product posted the worst six-month performance in about 50 years at the end of 2008 and beginning of this year.