May 4, 2009 in Nation/World

Leading U.S. health expert urging cautious approach

Associated Press
 
Developments on swine flu worldwide
Key developments on swine flu outbreaks, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, World Health Organization, and government officials:

Deaths: 26 confirmed in Mexico and one confirmed in U.S., a toddler from Mexico who died in Texas.

Confirmed sickened worldwide, 1,192: 727 in Mexico; 274 in U.S.; 101 in Canada; 44 in Spain; 18 in Britain; eight in Germany; six in New Zealand; four in Israel, Italy and France; two in El Salvador; one each in Austria, Costa Rica, Colombia, Denmark, Hong Kong, Ireland, the Netherlands, Portugal, South Korea and Switzerland.

U.S. confirmed cases from CDC or states: New York, 90; Texas, 43; California, 29; Arizona, 18; South Carolina, 15; Delaware, 10; Louisiana, New Jersey and Massachusetts, seven; Colorado, four; Florida, Indiana, Illinois, Nebraska, Ohio, Oregon, Virginia and Wisconsin, three; Connecticut, Kansas and Michigan, two; and one each in Alabama, Iowa, Kentucky, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Idaho and Utah.

More U.S. school closings announced, including all 24 schools in a district west of Detroit after a high school student came down with an apparent case of the illness. New York City high school that had 45 students with confirmed swine flu cases reopens.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says about a third of confirmed U.S. cases are people who had been to Mexico and likely picked up the infection there.

Hong Kong, where severe acute respiratory syndrome killed 299 in 2003, ordered weeklong quarantine of downtown hotel where a Mexican tourist was confirmed to have the illness, trapping 274 guests and employees inside.

Mexico to allow most businesses to reopen Wednesday. Mexico City cafes, museums and libraries to reopen this week; schools to reopen after inspections are completed.

Mexican government charters a plane to bring its citizens home from China after 70 Mexican nationals traveling in China were quarantined there.

World Health Organization says slaughtering pigs unnecessary because virus is being spread through humans; says swine herd in Canada likely infected by farmworker who returned from Mexico.

U.S. Meat Export Federation, which represents pork and beef interests abroad, estimates that U.S. pork exports have dropped about 10 percent since the swine flu scare started.

Visitation at all California prisons has been suspended after an ill inmate at Centinela State Prison in Imperial County is being tested for swine flu.

WASHINGTON — A leading U.S. health expert said Monday that while “there are encouraging signs” of a leveling off in the severity of the swine flu threat, it’s still too early to declare the problem under control.

“I’m not ready to say that yet,” Dr. Richard Besser, acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said when asked about indications by Mexican health authorities that the disease has peaked there.

Besser did tell network television interviewers that “what we’re seeing is an illness that looks very much like seasonal flu. But we’re not seeing the type of severe disease that we were worrying about.” He noted that roughly 36,000 people die each year in this country from the winter flu, so it’s still a serious matter.

At least 274 cases of swine flu virus have been confirmed in 35 states so far in the United States, a count by The Associated Press shows. The most recent CDC count was 226 cases in 30 states. The discrepancy can be attributed at least in part to a time lag in state reporting to the federal agency. And in some instances, states have identified “probable” cases that were not confirmed subsequently.

“In previous pandemics,” he said, “there have been waves and you don’t know what this virus is going to do.”

U.S. confirmed cases from the CDC or the states: New York, 63; Texas, 43; California, 29; Arizona, 18; South Carolina, 15; Delaware, 10; Louisiana, New Jersey and Massachusetts, seven; Colorado, four; Florida, Indiana, Illinois, Nebraska, Ohio, Oregon, Virginia and Wisconsin, three; Connecticut, Kansas and Michigan, two; and one each in Alabama, Iowa, Kentucky, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Idaho and Utah.

There has been one death in the United States, a toddler who succumbed to the disease after he was brought to this country from Mexico.

Besser said health authorities also are concerned about indications that the flu had so far struck the young more heavily than older people, and that there still may be deaths from it.

He also said he didn’t think it was necessarily time to ease off on school closings and other steps that have been taken to contain the spread of the infection.

“We’re seeing infections in almost every state,” Besser said, “and as that occurs, those who have underlying problems (such as the elderly and people with compromised immune systems) may be affected more …. It may be that this disease is starting first in children, and then moving to the elderly, so there’s still much that we do not know.”

Besser said that as a parent and a pediatrician, he thinks it’s best for kids to be in school, whenever possible, and that adjustments in school shutdowns might be possible “as we learn and see that this virus is not more serious than ordinary flu.”

Asked whether the food supply has been compromised, he said, “It may be that pigs have more to fear from people than people have to fear from pigs.”

“With each day some of the uncertainty goes away, we learn more, and we’re seeing encouraging signs,” Besser said. “The encouraging signs have to do with severity.” He summed up the situation by saying he was “precautiously optimistic” about trends now surfacing.

But he hastened to add that people still need to take everyday precautions, like vigorous and frequent hand washing, covering their noses and mouths when they sneeze and staying home when they’re sick.

Besser said that what now ensues in the Southern Hemisphere, which is just entering flu season, will be “critically important for us to understand as we think about the decisions around vaccination.”

The CDC chief was interviewed on CBS’s “The Early Show” and NBC’s “Today” show.

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