Proper perspective
Swine flu risk is small, but must be dealt with aggressively
St. Louis Post-Dispatch, April 30: “In the long run, we’re all dead.” – John Maynard Keynes
The World Health Organization warned Wednesday that a swine flu pandemic is likely imminent. “It’s really all of humanity that’s under threat,” said Dr. Margaret Chan, the organization’s director general.
Frightening though the risk may be, it’s also important to keep the numbers in perspective. Consider these risks and numbers:
Total number of laboratory-confirmed swine flu cases, as of noon Wednesday Central Daylight Time:
United States: 91.
Mexico: 26.
All other countries: 31.
Total laboratory-confirmed swine flu deaths: 8.
Annual seasonal flu deaths, U.S.: 36,000.
Shark attacks in U.S. waters, 2008: 59.
Annual deaths from food-borne illness, U.S.: 5,000.
Hospitalizations for food-borne illness: 325,000.
Accidental poisoning deaths in 2004, U.S.: 23,618.
Deaths from falls: 19,665.
Estimated deaths from being uninsured, 2006: 22,000 to 27,000.
Annual pneumonia deaths: 58,564.
Motor vehicle accident deaths, 2004: 43,667.
Diabetes deaths, 2004: 73,138.
Estimated annual deaths from medical errors: 42,000 to 98,000.
Heart disease deaths, 2004: 652,486.
Annual tobacco-related deaths, U.S.: 438,000.
Alcohol-related deaths, 2004: 21,634.
U.S. lightning strike fatalities, 2006: 47.
Philadelphia Inquirer, April 30: The death of a 23-month-old Mexican boy in Texas was the first confirmed fatality from swine flu in the United States, further raising concern about the rapid spread of the disease.
Indeed, the threat of swine flu is real and serious. The number of confirmed swine-flu cases is approaching 100 nationally.
About 150 people have died from the disease in Mexico – the epicenter of the outbreak. An additional 2,000 there are believed to be infected with swine flu.
The stock market, travel industry and other businesses have been impacted.
However, the growing global alarm needs to be tempered to avoid panic, while also increasing public awareness, safety measures, and swift responses.
Senate confirmation Tuesday of Kathleen Sebelius as Health and Human Services chief removed a distraction for the administration on health matters.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is running under a capable acting director, but also needs stable leadership.
What lies ahead now is a months-long process – or longer – that Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano likened to “a marathon, not a sprint.”
That’s why it’s all the more important to avoid health responses that rely on bad science or mask agendas.
Los Angeles Times, April 29: Whether the swine flu turns into a serious epidemic or never fulfills its initial global threat, the federal government rightly went into high alert and launched a search for a vaccine. Just as in 1976, this new emergence of swine flu could come to nothing – which all of us can hope for – but better to attack it with vigor than to understate the risk. That’s because, in addition to sweeping government action (travel advisories, research and the release of antiviral drugs), limiting the outbreak also requires public knowledge and personal action (less kissing and more soap and water).
We wouldn’t go as far as to applaud the overreaction among European health authorities, who asked people to avoid unnecessary travel to the United States, or Russia’s ban on U.S. and Mexican pork imports. The flu can’t be caught by eating pork, and several dozen U.S. flu cases – apparently much milder than the cases in Mexico – in a nation of 300 million people is a weak reason for bringing global travel and commerce to a panic-induced halt. A better argument is made for restricting travel from any country into and out of Mexico, where there have been more than 2,000 possible cases with widespread contamination.
Stricter vigilance along the border is called for – this is a health issue, not a political one – but one of the worst reactions would be an anti-immigrant backlash born of racism and fear.