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November 12, 2009 in Nation/World
CDC: Swine flu has sickened 22 million in 6 months
WASHINGTON — Swine flu has sickened about 22 million Americans since April and killed nearly 4,000, including 540 children, say startling federal estimates released Thursday.
The figures — a quadrupling of previous death estimates — don’t mean swine flu suddenly has worsened, and most cases still don’t require a doctor’s care. Instead, the numbers are a long-awaited better attempt to quantify the new flu’s true toll.
“I am expecting all of these numbers, unfortunately, to continue to rise,” said Dr. Anne Schuchat of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “We have a long flu season ahead of us.”
And tight supplies of vaccine to combat the illness continue: Not quite 42 million doses are currently available, a few million less than CDC had predicted last week.
A new Associated Press-GfK poll shows nearly one in six parents has gotten at least some of their children vaccinated against swine flu since inoculations began last month. Another 14 percent of parents sought vaccine, but couldn’t find any.
Only about 30 percent of children routinely get flu vaccinations during a normal winter. That even this many have gotten vaccinated against the new flu that scientists call the 2009 H1N1 strain despite the shortage suggests CDC’s target-the-young message has gotten through.
But three times as many adults have tried and failed to find vaccine for themselves as have succeeded.
“I know they’re trying their hardest,” Joy McGavin of Pittston, Pa., said of the CDC’s vaccine efforts. She hasn’t yet found vaccine for her three children despite a persistent hunt — even though she and her youngest child are at extra risk because of chronic illnesses.
“But it is kind of frustrating, being as my children’s school already shut down” because of a big outbreak, McGavin said.
And interest among the young adults who also are at high risk is waning fast, found the AP-GfK poll of 1,006 adults nationwide.
Thursday, Schuchat again urged patience in seeking vaccine.
“It’s a marathon and not a sprint,” she said. “More vaccine is being ordered and delivered and used every day.”
Until now, the CDC has conservatively estimated more than 1,000 deaths and “many millions” of new H1N1 infections. The agency was devoting more time to battling the pandemic than to counting it, and earlier figures were based on laboratory-confirmed cases even as doctors largely quit using flu tests months ago — and experts knew that deaths from things like the bacterial pneumonia that often follows flu were being missed.
Thursday’s report attempts to calculate the first six months of the new H1N1 strain’s spread, from April through mid-October. The CDC said:
—Some 98,000 people have been hospitalized from this new flu or its complications, including 36,000 children, 53,000 adults younger than 65 and 9,000 older adults.
—Deaths could range from a low of 2,500 to as many as 6,100, depending on how the data’s analyzed.
—Some 8 million children have become ill, 12 million adults younger than 65 and 2 million older adults.
The estimate of child deaths may seem especially surprising, considering the CDC’s conservative count of lab-confirmed deaths a week ago was 129.
“We don’t think things have changed from last week to this week,” Schuchat stressed, explaining the importance of looking beyond those lab counts. It’s “a better estimate for the big picture of what’s out there.”
The question now is what effect those estimates will have on a public that largely views swine flu as not that big a threat.
The AP-GfK poll, conducted last weekend, found just 23 percent of responders — and 27 percent of parents — were very likely to keep seeking vaccine.
Stephanie Hannon of Douglas, Mass., decided to get a swine flu vaccine for just one of her three children, the one at extra risk because of asthma. She’s concerned that the swine flu vaccine hasn’t been studied long enough to justify for her less-at-risk youngsters.
“Only because of my other daughter’s condition, I felt like I didn’t have a choice,” she said. “You never know if you make the right decision.”
Swine flu targets young adults, too, yet just 16 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds were very likely to seek vaccine, down from 34 percent in September.
The AP-GfK Poll was conducted November 5-9 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Media. It involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,006 adults nationwide, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
© Copyright 2009 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
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SugarShane on November 12 at 12:22 p.m.
Shame on you SR for not reporting both sides of the story. The CDC seems to be in bed with big pharma. The media and government have been quick to jump on the bandwagon and only CBS news has had the balls to say otherwise. Don’t believe the hype, its all about how many doses of vaccine can we sell, regardless of its effectiveness. Please I urge anyone that is caught up in the swine flu BS to read up on the subject and check out the CBS story here: http://www.examiner.com/x-6495-US-Intelligence-Examiner~y2009m10d28-Swine-Flu-Cases-CBS-reports-CDC-deception-on-swine-flu-cases
madscientist on November 12 at 1:50 p.m.
they are not selling any vaccines dude. All the vaccines come from the government “free”. Your and your kids tax dollars pay for them. The government is not selling them to the medical clinics.
SugarShane on November 12 at 4:18 p.m.
Right, like mad scientist said, who is obviously actually mad, the vaccine is “free” but paid for with my tax dollars, makes perfect sense. Idiot.
theisena on November 12 at 4:45 p.m.
I love how Sugar Shane and all the other H1N1 conspiracy theorists didn’t bat an eye about the regular annual flu vaccine, which is exactly the same concept. In fact, were the regular flu vaccine not already prepared before H1N1 appeared, it would likely have included antibodies for H1N1. But somehow the H1N1 vaccine alone is different and dangerous and some sort of Illuminati scheme to scam and control the population. You know what’s infinitely more dangerous than the vaccine, Sugar Shane? Your virulent conspiracies.
SugarShane on November 12 at 7:57 p.m.
Oh yeah, its a big conspiracy. I didnt report it, CBS news did, and Im sure they are just a bunch of conspiracy nuts. Before you run your mouth why dont you look up the vaccine and how ineffective it is and how many are claiming that vaccines in general cause death, paralysis, and autism in children. They tried this crap once before and were sued by millions of people, why do you think they barred the new vaccine makers from being liable from any damages resulting from being vaccinated. Unless your some kind of Dr or chemist, I would just keep your ignorance to yourself. Whats dangerous is a government that goes unchecked in its claims, like epidemics and WMD’s, and ignorant people like you that blindly follow whatever your little brain is spoon fed. I bet you didnt even read the article about the CDCs deceptions.
zelda on November 12 at 10:35 p.m.
I read the ripping expose provided by Sugar Shane. The CBS content sort of runs out of gas about 2/3rds of the way down and the Examiner’s “big pharma” conspiracy juju kicks in.
Part of the reason for the disjointed response to H1N1 is that the “rapid tests” used to test for influenza A or B are not very reliable. At best and under ideal testing conditions, a true positive result is only right about 60 or so percent of the time and that’s with the best of the nasal swab quick tests.
So if somebody shows up with raging flu symptoms and you, as a medical professional, know that the only flu currently circulating is H1N1, you’re not going to tell the patient, “Hang on. We want to culture your mucous specimen for a few days to see if you really have the flu. Come back later.”
You’re going to make a reasonable assumption with the facts at hand and provide treatment for a serious case of flu. That’s because the consequences of being wrong are worse than the consequences of being right.
It’s not a conspiracy. It’s common sense.
In a perfect world, there would be rapid tests that are 100% accurate, cultures that take minutes to interpret and epidemiological models that predict the spread of disease with certainty. Until then, informed and educated judgement are what we depend on.
theisena on November 13 at 1:55 p.m.
Sugar Shane: first, your personal attacks are completely inappropriate. Second, before you run your cocky mouth, look at the facts at hand: there was NEVER any evidence, after numerous peer-reviewed studies, that the flu vaccine caused medical problems. Correlation does not equal causation. Of course, since YOU are clearly “some kind of Dr. or chemist”, you already knew that, right?