El Niño may provide clues to Christmas snow question

After today, we’ll pass the Thanksgiving holiday and be heading toward Christmas. The big question I’m starting to hear is, “Are we going to have a white Christmas?”

As mentioned in previous articles, the El Niño warmer-than-normal temperature event in the south-central Pacific Ocean continues to maintain its strength. During El Niño years, we typically see milder winters with more rain than snow falling in the lower elevations.

Unless the El Niño suddenly weakens, I believe the chances for that white Christmas are less than 50/50, especially if Ma Nature continues on her present course. Global weather patterns are being influenced by the warmer El Niño, and it looks like the Inland Northwest is on track for drier and milder conditions starting in mid-to-late December.

Last December was incredible in terms of snow and cold. At the airport, 61.5 inches fell, nearly 20 inches above the normal for the entire season. On Dec. 25, 20 inches of snow was on the ground. December 2008 was very chilly as the average temperature was 5.3 degrees below normal.

The most snow ever measured on Dec. 25 at the airport was 23 inches in 1951. Nearly 3 feet of snow was gauged in parts of North Idaho on that date. In 1996, 19 inches was measured at the Spokane International Airport with 10 inches on the ground in 1992, 1987 and 1916.

Since record-keeping for Spokane began in 1881, we’ve had 61 Christmas Days with more than a trace of snow on the ground. Based on climatology over the last 128 years, the Spokane region has seen a white Christmas about 48 percent of the time. In Coeur d’Alene, there have been 81 days since 1895 with more than a trace of snow on the ground.

The chances for snow do increase during the full moon phase of Dec. 2-9. This time frame may also bring much colder temperatures. It’s possible that we may see as much as 6 inches to a foot of snow gauged during the first half of December in our part of the country.

Although it does look like milder weather toward the end of next month, all it takes is one snowstorm at the right time to give us that white Christmas. Happy Thanksgiving!