Spokane7
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August 22, 2010 in City
O’Quinn finish triggers hunches, but map telling
Every campaign worth a darn leaves a losing candidate’s supporters with some hard feelings, nagging questions and what ifs.
So Shelly O’Quinn’s third-place finish in a 6th Legislative District House race understandably vexes some folks who believe she has great potential to be a rising GOP star. As they ponder why she lost, some apparently have a theory that Democratic perfidy helped do her in.
The theory, recounted by one supporter, is that Democrats were afraid that freshman incumbent John Driscoll would have a much harder time in the general against O’Quinn than John Ahern. There’s some logic to that speculation: Driscoll beat Ahern, a well-entrenched incumbent, two years ago, so history is on their side.
Ahern outpolled O’Quinn, but she outspent him. The Gallatin Group, a regional public affairs organization that has people who follow politics the way others follow Gonzaga basketball, opined in an election eve epistle “Pondering Politics in the Inland Northwest”:
“Here’s our prediction. In an Ahern vs. Driscoll match-up, Driscoll wins. However, the Gallatin office is split in our prediction that if O’Quinn manages a win tomorrow the seat will return back to its Republican roots with an O’Quinn victory in November against Driscoll.”
So wily Democrats could try to sway the outcome of the primary by voting for Ahern now, then switch to Driscoll in November. Or so the speculation goes.
Speculation is one thing. Facts are something else.
First, it assumes Democrats are organized enough to persuade willing Driscoll voters to cast ballots for Ahern. Local Democrats have shown themselves anything but organized this year, from failing to field candidates for many legislative seats to recruiting a congressional hopeful who failed to win a single county in the 5th District.
Second, if there were some kind of plot, it would show up in a comparison of the vote totals for the House race and the 6th District Senate race. Democrat Sen. Chris Marr pulled down about 2,000 more votes than fellow Democrat Driscoll, while Ahern and Quinn combined for about 4,000 more votes than Republican Senate hopeful Mike Baumgartner.
Considering that Marr and Driscoll have similar voting histories that would attract the same partisan support, if something fishy were going on, a pattern should emerge: Ahern should consistently do much better in strong Marr precincts as Democrats crossed over to vote for Ahern to help Driscoll down the road; O’Quinn should consistently run stronger in precincts where Baumgartner ran far ahead of Marr.
When the newspaper fed vote totals into computer mapping software, it showed that isn’t what happened. At least not consistently.
Ahern did very well in some of the precincts where Baumgartner did very well, but O’Quinn also ran strong in some strong Baumgartner precincts. And both had successes and failures in precincts that Marr won handily.
What the maps show more conclusively is that Ahern won because he won more of those same Republican-leaning precincts that Baumgartner won, by bigger margins than O’Quinn won her precincts. It’s a pretty simple equation: Win more votes in more places, and you win the election.
Spin Control, a weekly column by veteran reporter Jim Camden, also appears online as a blog with daily items, reader comments and videos. To see the computer maps of the votes, go to www.spokesman.com/blogs/spincontrol.
Romney/Paul split weighing on county GOP 
mmspowaus on August 22 at 10:32 a.m.
Mr., Camden:
I think you and your politicalphile friends neglected a few election determining factors in your collective analysis of the Driscoll vs. Ahern vs. O’Quinn contest.
You did not consider that O’Quinn had some bad press on the last two weekends while the ballots were out.
Your associate, Jonathan Brunt did two articles that were revealing:
The first article broke the news that O’Quinn within a year had moved into the 6th district from the Spokane Valley to run for the office in question. Voters don’t like carpet baggers as a rule.
The second article came out on the last weekend; right be for most true red blooded republicans vote, The O’Quinn campaign’s chief manager had been broadly touting O’Quinn’s lead in what turned out to be non-existent polling results. Voters, especially GOP voters don’t swallow slimy campaigns and dishonesty with savor.
You and your “insiders” can choose to speculate, but as you pointed out, the local democrats and even the local GOP are just not that organized to vote for the weaker opposition candidate in a primary election….
When you hear mysterious hoof beats, don’t search for zebras, Jim….
As for O’Quinn’s future political career? Now is the time under the stress of a loss election that reveals true character. Is O’Quinn mature enough to timely endorse and campaign for her fellow Republican, John Ahern and his victory, or not. Only Shelly O’Quinn can decide this. If she doesn’t, there’s no doubt the electorate and her detractors were correct.
Mr. Camden, you were spot on however with your point that both Marr and Driscoll have nearly identical voting records.
May I suggest you and your readers look up on the WA state legislative website, SB 5599. This is a bill Marr sponsored, Driscoll and Ornsby supported.
The legislation effectively takes away every Washington States citizen’s right to vote for President of the United States.
If this legislation was known by the electorate, voters would promptly send these three local DNC darlings forever back to the private sector….
I encourage you or Mr. Brunt to study and write a sober analysis of this legislation (now state law) before the ballots are released in mid October, 2010.
The voters of the 6th and 3rd districts have a right to know that their legislators have given away Washington State Citizens’ right to vote for President of the United States….forever…
ChefGus/ John Olsen on August 22 at 10:57 a.m.
If my “read” on Ms Oq’Quinn is good….. she will NOT work for Mr Ahern’s election…. they are not on the same page on so many issues… particularly women’s rights and the issues around parity and balance and peace and justice. Mr Ahern is an Old, Old time politician… almost a caricature ….. Blue Blazer with Brass Buttons and Fancy shoes , with sharply pressed Khaki pants… if that does not scream “Country Club” loud and clear I don’t know what does…. Shelly in personal conversations seems to be grounded… and although a Republican… she is the sort of Republican that I could and would work for …. Some of her campaign manager’s antics…. like spamming the Community College System with Emails for support are not very smart, and likely should be corrected…. j
misjustice on August 22 at 11:05 a.m.
As stated previously on a different thread;
misjustice on August 20 at 6:07 p.m.
Matt; your reading of SB 5599 is incorrect as spoketucky stated on the following post.
spoketucky on August 18 at 12:09 p.m.
“SB 5599 would not have “taken away Washington citizens right to vote for the Presidency.” It was a part of a nationwide movement to elect the President by popular vote and not the archaic, undemocratic electoral college. If you are a member of the GOP I would think you’d welcome such a change. Under the current system you are essentially disenfranchised as all of Washington’s votes in the electoral college are cast for the Democratic presidential candidate in that winner take all system.”
It’s really not all that different than the electoral college system of electing the President of the United States; under the electoral college system a candidate can win the popular vote but lose the Presidency.
“Each state has a number of electors equal to the number of its U.S. senators plus the number of its U.S. representatives. Currently, the Electoral College includes 538 electors, 535 for the total number of congressional members, and three who represent Washington, D.C., as allowed by the 23rd Amendment. On the Monday following the second Wednesday in December, the electors of each state meet in their respective state capitals to officially cast their votes for president and vice president. These votes are then sealed and sent to the president of the Senate, who on January 6th opens and reads the votes in the presence of both houses of Congress. The winner is sworn into office at noon on January 20th.”
“Most of the time, electors cast their votes for the candidate who has received the most votes in that particular state. Some states have laws that require electors to vote for the candidate that won the popular vote, while other electors are bound by pledges to a specific political party. However, there have been times when electors have voted contrary to the people’s decision, and there is no federal law or Constitutional provision against it. ”
http://people.howstuffworks.com/quest…
Here are the four elections when the candidate who led the popular vote did not win the office:
•1824: John Quincy Adams received more than 38,000 fewer votes than Andrew Jackson, but neither candidate won a majority of the Electoral College. Adams was awarded the presidency when the election was thrown to the House of Representatives.
•1876: Nearly unanimous support from small states gave Rutherford B. Hayes a one-vote margin in the Electoral College, despite the fact that he lost the popular vote to Samuel J. Tilden by 264,000 votes.
•1888: Benjamin Harrison lost the popular vote by 95,713 votes to Grover Cleveland, but won the electoral vote by 65.
•2000: Al Gore had over half a million votes more than George W. Bush, with 50,992,335 votes to Bush’s 50,455,156. But after recount controversy in Florida and a U.S. Supreme Court ruling, Bush was awarded the state by 537 popular votes. Like most states, Florida has a “winner takes all” rule. This means that the candidate who wins the state by popular vote also gets all of the state’s electoral votes. Bush became president with 271 electoral votes.
http://people.howstuffworks.com/quest…
It is my understanding that SB 5599 would have our state’s electors (11) over ride the electoral college in favor of casting thier votes to reflect the popular vote (which is a more direct form of democracy). No one is trying to take away the ability to vote for President, and to state that they are is incorrect.
Panorama on August 22 at 11:36 a.m.
I believe that ChefGus unknowingly hit the nail on the head when he said “they are not on the same page on so many issues”. That is the reason why Shelly O’Quinn lost this race, because she is not on the same page as most Republicans. She was not on the same page when it comes to life, marriage, taxes, and property rights.
She always followed up every answer she gave with a “but”.
She is pro-life but, she supports traditional marriage but, she wasn’t for raising taxes but, she supports….who am I kidding, she didn’t care about river setbacks and property rights.
The reason she lost was because she didn’t work hard enough, she thought she could buy the election, and she was closer aligned with the Democrat platform than the Republican platform. She ran under the wrong party.
misjustice on August 22 at 12:31 p.m.
My take on O’Quinn was that, as a newcomer to the political arena, she was very inexperienced in the art of politickin’.
Panorama correctly highlights this with their post regarding O’Quinn’s position statements (a youtube video of O’Quinn speaking at a coffee klatch further highlights her hemming and hawing).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKKIUdUxCfE
Seasoned politicians do not quibble, quantify, or waiver when outlining where they stand on the issues. O’Quinn did; and her campaign faltered.
Dazzeetrader11 on August 22 at 1:45 p.m.
Shelly is a rookie. Ahern’s Josh Kearns did a huge disservice when he ( without consent) videotaped her back in January. Likely this was illegal as well.
Shelly will learn from this and perhaps solidify her positions.
I hope she has a bright future. I know Ahern. He lives near my parents home. One thing he’ll NEVER be accused of is being a “Country Club” type. He’s a very simple, uncomplicated older man. True, Shelly’s well left of John..but who isn’t.
Shelly’s a breath of fresh air and is right of center but not FAR right of center. She was ambushed by Ahern’s grilling in January and Kearns use it against her J…as is shown in the video you posted. Absolutely beyond ethics. Dirty tricks.
I do think Driscoll should be booted. Ahern reflects E Wa and his district much more accurately. Lots of the Driscoll/Marr types got the nod because of the anit-Bush backlash ( In Marr’s case, the incumbent didn’t run! My dad was outraged as he contributed to Benson’s campaign).
Shelly will be back and I hope she joins Baumgartner in Olympia. She’s a breath of fresh air as is Mike B. NO on Marr. Shelly will be fine as this was her first campaign. She’s just not FAR right enough to snag the Matt Monroe type votes.
ChefGus/ John Olsen on August 22 at 4:52 p.m.
Daisy… thanks for your insights here…. I like Ms O’Quinn a lot… and understand she is right of center… but on some issues many of us are… I am all in favor of young people, particularly a young woman with her background and gestalt being one of our legislators… the time has come to stop all of the polarization… the folks that I understand to be the Matt Monroe?? type whatever that is who wave the flag and then spit on the constitution are not the sort I’d choose to run the cities and counties and states of our Union. Those that talk of Secession will not be fought against like the Civil War… we will just pick up their keys when they throw them on the desk and ask them to clear out their desks… The South Rising again can march off into the sunset… no Civil War… just a Civil Goodbye…. The states that want to return to Jim Crow laws , segregation, and white power may have their bluff called…. just the tourist dollars alone that are NOT going to Arizona and Florida and Texas will cripple their economy. All of the Retired folks on Social Security and Medicare living in another country would make the U.S. Government more financially stable. John
mmspowaus on August 22 at 7:08 p.m.
I don’t know who to address MS_Justice or Spotucky…
I’ll assume whom ever you are, that you are a person of well meaning and wish for our state and nation to prosper.
I’ll dispense with my typical friendly blog banter due to the seriousness of this issue.
Let’s also dispense with the old liberal vs. conservative / DNC vs. GOP rhetoric as well. Again this issue is way too important.
MS_Justice, voting for president or any leadership is a right given to us by the blood, family and fortunes of the founders of this nation and those who followed. It is up to us to pass it down to our children and our children’s children. WE owe it to them…
The text you cut and pasted from Spotucky was at best spin and at worse a poor excuse for a heinous act.
Let me explain the situation in less confusing way.
Hypothetically, let’s Washington State wished to vote for candidate “A” for president of the United States of America. Every Citizen who can vote in Washington actually voted for candidate “A”.
The rest of the nation is in a near dead lock between candidate “A” and Candidate “B” splitting the electoral votes almost in half with candidate “B” leading with six more electoral votes and 120 more popular votes (Some speculate the ballots were tampered with in Southern Florida; but that’s Florida’s problem).
If this improbable scenario happened in 2008, the election would go to Candidate “A”, the candidate EVERY WASHINGTON STATE CITIZEN VOTED FOR.
IF IT HAPPENED IN 2012, Candidate “B” would win.
Thanks to Chris Marr, who sponsored the legislation and John Driscoll who voted for it along with Tim Ornsby, it no longer MATTERS how Washington State Citizens vote; since our votes AUTOMATICLY go to who ever has the majority of the popular vote.
Our vote in WA State is decided for us by the larger populated states.
This places Washington States’ interest with the tyranny of the majority. An all too familiar Eastern Washington political position…
A more technical question is this: why is their an electoral college anyway? Why is their a US Senate? As a citizen of Eastern Washington for nearly two decades, it is not hard to understand the tyranny of the majority our founding fathers feared….
Washington State is setup based on a democracy system. It is NOT like the Fed system in a few respects.
Every state has an equal representation in the US Senate. The more populous states however enjoy more representation in the US House. Likewise, the counties with a greater population, enjoys a great influence in the WA State House; unlike the US Senate however, the WA Senate also is based on population.
How has that worked out for Eastern Washington?
Do you think we would have a larger share of our own tax dollars here if we only had one senator per county instead of per district?
How many governors or US senators have come from this side of the cascades in the last thirty years?
This is why our founding fathers developed the Electoral College so every President would not come from the same six high population states…and it has worked well for over 200 years…
Lastly MS_Justice, again this in not a left or right thing but a right and wrong thing.
The greatest mistake of the twentieth century was people standing by while their rights were taken away from them systematically.
It always starts off as a “better” idea and “to our advantage” unfortunately, it always ends the same; a socialist dictator…
Stand up folks and do not let your right to vote for presidents disappear quietly into the night…
Send the message by voting out MARR, DRISCOLL and ORNSBY…If the GOP and DNC replacements don’t fix this issue in two years, VOTE THEM OUT AS WELL.
All that is required for evil to prosper is for good people to sit by and do nothing…
mmspowaus on August 22 at 7:26 p.m.
Daisy,
The video issue is old as dirt politically and is irrelevant. It is what she said in the video that was the shocker…
She was trying to recover from it and kept bring it up. This drove more people to see it and affectively induced a Barb Streisand video effect. Big mistake on the part of the O’Quinn campaign…
It was not big enough to cause the loss however…I believe what I wrote in an earlier post is more reasonable cause….
You can try to label me republican Ms Daisy, but I’m an independent…There are about as many GOP people that hate me as there are DNC….
The truth is, I seek the best deal for the region…always
Center is not always best; neither is far left or far right. It depends on the times, the situation and the candidate.
Only a FOOL votes for the same ideology in EVERY election EVERY year….
This is as moronic as getting the same cold vaccine every winter for every illness.
Don’t feel sorry for O’Quinn however. She had EVERY advantage and still lost in a fair race. She just got out campaigned…it happens…
Verbal on August 25 at 3:07 p.m.
“Shelly’s a breath of fresh air and is right of center but not FAR right of center. She was ambushed by Ahern’s grilling in January and Kearns use it against her J…as is shown in the video you posted. Absolutely beyond ethics. Dirty tricks.”
Very well said, Daisy, and the reason I voted for her, and will NOT vote for Ahern.
mmspowaus on August 25 at 6:37 p.m.
Verbal:
Do you read the words others post?
I stated and documented that your current state senator and representative voted your right to vote for president out of existence and you STILL are whining about a video taken in a public location during and open meeting 8 months ago?
This is analogues to worrying about the slight discoloration of your finger nails due to the gangrene in your arm…
May I say with all due respect FOCUS ON A REAL ISSUE AND PROBLEM.
We have been betrayed by our own legislators and governor and you are chewing cud on petty sour grapes…,
The winner of the Primary, Driscoll voted to take away your right to vote for president.
A reasonable person would be much more concerned with that as an issue…