GOP awaits huge wins as Democrats scramble

WASHINGTON – Two weeks before Election Day, Democrats fear their grip on the House may be gone, and Republicans are poised to celebrate big gains in the Senate and governors’ mansions as well.

Analysts in both parties say all major indicators tilt toward the Republicans. President Barack Obama’s policies are widely unpopular. Congress, run by the Democrats, rates even lower. Fear and anger over unemployment and deep deficits are energizing conservative voters; liberals are demoralized.

Private groups are pouring huge sums of money into GOP campaigns. An almost dizzying series of Democratic messages has failed to gain traction, forcing Obama to zigzag in search of a winning formula.

At a Democratic rally in Boston on Saturday, Obama acknowledged that the enthusiasm of his presidential run two years ago may have faded in the face of the country’s economic problems. And he said Republicans believe they can “ride people’s anger and frustration all the way to the ballot box.”

“There is no doubt that this is a difficult election,” Obama told the crowd. “That’s because we’ve been through an incredibly difficult time as a nation.”

With early voting under way in many states, Democrats are trying to minimize the damage by concentrating their resources on a dwindling number of races.

“The poll numbers and the enthusiasm on the right versus the lack of the enthusiasm on the left suggest a pretty big Republican night,” said former Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey, who once headed the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

With Democrats in power while the unemployment rate stands at 9.6 percent, “it’s difficult to say, ‘Well, it could have been worse,’ ” Kerrey said.

Polls, campaign finance reports and advisers in both parties indicate that Democrats are embattled at every level.

House

Republicans need to win 40 seats to regain the House majority they lost four years ago. Even some Democratic officials acknowledge that their losses could well exceed that.

A GOP takeover would depose Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., as the first female House speaker and force Obama to negotiate with Republicans on every significant legislative issue.

Every day brings fresh evidence of Democratic officials virtually abandoning House members whose re-election bids seem hopeless. Republicans are expanding the field to pursue races that once appeared unattainable. In the coming week, Republicans or GOP-leaning outside groups plan to spend money on 82 House races that they see as competitive or within reach of a last-minute upset.

Democrats, desperate to hold their losses to three dozen seats, plan to run TV ads in 59 races. But their chief House campaign committee recently canceled millions of dollars worth of advertising for struggling Reps. Steve Driehaus and Mary Jo Kilroy of Ohio, Suzanne Kosmas of Florida, Betsy Markey of Colorado and Steve Kagen of Wisconsin.

They are shifting some of that money to incumbents once considered safe.

To gain the Senate majority, Republicans must hold all 18 of their seats on this year’s ballots while picking up 10 of the 19 Democratic seats. It’s a tough task but not inconceivable.

Democrats trail badly in states where they once held some hope of supplanting Republicans: Missouri, New Hampshire, Ohio and Florida. Kentucky is the only one that’s still close. But Democrats have reduced their spending there, a sign that Republican and tea party favorite Rand Paul is clearly ahead.

Among seats now held by Democrats, Republicans are favored to win open races in North Dakota and Indiana, and to oust Sen. Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas.

In Pennsylvania, where Republican Pat Toomey had comfortably led Democrat Joe Sestak in polls, the race has tightened in recent weeks, forcing the GOP to spend more than it had planned. The Republican Party also is pouring an additional $2 million into Illinois, where Republican Mark Kirk has slipped somewhat in polls in his race against Democrat Alexi Giannoulias for Obama’s old seat.

That said, Democrats say Wisconsin Sen. Russ Feingold is struggling mightily, and Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet is in a tough fight.

Democrats are anxiously watching Sens. Barbara Boxer in California and Patty Murray in Washington. Private polls show Republicans pulling closer.

Should Republicans win all the close races and knock off either Boxer or Murray, they may rue the nomination of tea partier Christine O’Donnell, who badly trails Chris Coons in Delaware. That once-promising state could have provided the 10th GOP win needed to take the Senate majority.

Democrats risk losing a dozen governors’ chairs they now hold, including those in pivotal presidential states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, Maine and New Mexico. Also possibly falling into GOP hands are Oklahoma, Kansas, Wyoming, Tennessee, Illinois and perhaps Oregon.

Democrats have good chances to pick up GOP-held governorships in four or five states, including California and possibly Florida.

Perhaps nothing has frustrated Democrats more than their yearlong failure to find a message that could puncture the anger of voters who seem bent on punishing the party in power. It wasn’t for a lack of trying.

Obama may have charmed stadiums full of voters in 2008, but he and congressional Democrats never recovered from barrages of criticism about unemployment, bank bailouts and strong-arm legislative tactics used on issues such as health care.

Eight months ago, Democrats predicted that voters would embrace the new health care law once portions took effect.

It didn’t work out that way. By the time the health bill’s first elements became law on Sept. 23, most Democratic candidates were ducking it.

Democrats turned their energies to framing the election as a series of one-on-one contests about local issues, while Republicans kept portraying it as a national referendum on Obama and the economy.

The national theme persisted, so Democrats tried to turn it to their advantage. Obama repeatedly reminded voters that former President George W. Bush had left him with a major recession, failing banks and a rapidly growing deficit.

In early autumn, the president and his allies tried another tack: portraying House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, as the well-tanned face of a party that would let Wall Street run amok while the richest Americans kept enjoying deep tax cuts.

Voters seemed to shrug. Obama and his top aides then tried a new approach: accusing Republican supporters, particularly the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, of funding campaigns with millions of undisclosed dollars, some of them possibly from foreign sources.

The group and others angrily denied the allegations, and Democratic strategists said they saw little evidence that the debate was moving voters.

Many Republicans say there’s almost nothing that Democrats can do at this stage.

“It’s as if the concrete has already been poured around the Democrats’ feet,” said GOP consultant Kevin Madden.