WASHINGTON – The Gallup organization dropped a bomb on the political world this week. In shorthand, the pollsters said Monday that if the midterm elections were held now, Republicans would take control of the House – and probably by a comfortable margin.
On Tuesday, James Campbell, a professor of political science at the University of Buffalo, weighed in with a prediction based on his modeling of the political climate. He said that Republicans are poised to gain 51 or 52 House seats, at least 11 more than needed to depose Democrats.
Election Day is still two months away, but the twin findings added to the fear among Democrats that their House majority is in jeopardy and possibly their Senate majority as well.
For decades, Gallup has asked voters the following question: “If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party’s candidate would you vote for in your congressional district?”
This week’s survey produced the largest lead for the Republicans in the history of asking that question: a margin of 51 percent to 41 percent. Ninety-six percent of Republicans said they would vote for the GOP candidate, while 88 percent of Democrats said they would support the Democrat. Independents, who helped power Democratic victories in 2006 and 2008, split 48 percent to 31 percent for Republicans.
This measurement, known as the generic ballot question, has sometimes been considered an imperfect or misleading indicator of House election results. Gallup begs to differ. Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup poll, said that Gallup’s final survey of likely voters before Election Day has been an accurate predictor of the two parties’ share of the national vote in House elections. The national vote, in turn, he added, is an excellent predictor of seats won or lost.
The Gallup survey was based on interviews with registered voters. Gallup won’t start measuring attitudes among likely voters until late September or early October. But everything suggests that a likely voter survey this year would give the Republicans a greater advantage.
There are some cautionary notes. Gallup’s generic ballot measure has fluctuated between late August and early November in past midterm contests. Four years ago, Democrats were ahead by six points in August, by 19 points in October and by eight points in the final survey. In 1994, the two parties were tied in August, October and early November, but the final survey showed the GOP with a clear advantage. So things can change.
Another caveat. Barely two months ago, Democrats held a lead in Gallup’s tracking. That caused a moment of hopefulness among party strategists that has quickly disappeared.
Caveats aside, Democrats are in deep trouble. Their breaking point is 48 percent in the Gallup generic measurement. At that level, they would be projected to win 216 seats – and become the House minority party. A support level of 46 percent would leave them with an estimated 197 seats. No party has won more than 54 percent of the two-party vote in a midterm election since 1986.