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February 10, 2011 in Washington Voices
Low sunspot activity may spell colder weather for decades
A recent article published by my business partner, North Idaho climatologist Cliff Harris, talks about the possible impact of the sun on climate change.
According to NASA, the sun’s output of energy was at its lowest level ever recorded by modern instruments at the end of 2008. Solar winds, which are the stream of charged particles ejected from the upper atmosphere of the sun, were at a 50-year low.
From 1991 to 2007, the average yearly sunspot total was 1,099. But in the entire year of 2008, there were only 55 sunspots, a massive reduction of 95 percent. September 2008 had no sunspots counted for the first time since 1913.
The latest cycle of low sunspot activity slowly came to an end by early 2010 as the number of sunspots gradually began to increase. This was the longest such period of a low sunspot cycle since 1796, when the world was plunged into the Dalton Minimum. During that time, there were exceptionally cold temperatures on a global scale that didn’t end until 1830, 34 years later.
If the past is indeed a predictor of future weather trends, the earth’s temperature may turn colder than normal for at least the next couple of decades. However, there may be a brief period of intense sunspot activity expected in late 2012, around the end of the Mayan calendar.
Based on the sun’s normal 11-year cycle from solar maximas to solar minimas, our star is supposed to be heading toward higher sunspot activity. Although there has been some increase in solar storms over the past six months, the number of sunspots has remained relatively low, averaging about 10-30 per day. There have been days, even within the last month, of no sunspots at all.
Since the peak of the earth’s temperature in 1998, global readings have been fluctuating. Only time will tell on whether our planet turns warmer or cooler in the coming years.
In terms of our local weather, the upper-level wind flow patterns are showing signs of change. I still believe that we could see an additional 6 inches of snow at the airport from now through April 13. This means that we should end up in the mid to upper 50-inch range for seasonal snowfall.
At elevations above 3,500 feet in the nearby ski resorts, we could see another 1 to 3 feet of snow in the next couple of months. Don’t take those snow tires off just yet. Winter’s not over.
The spring of 2011 should be a bit cooler and wetter than usual in our region, providing that weakening La Nina doesn’t completely fall apart.
Contact meteorologist Randy Mann at randy@ longrangeweather.com.
Randy Mann: Sunspot activity could push temperatures higher 
greenlibertarian on February 10 at 2:19 p.m.
Since the peak of the earth’s temperature in 1998…
What are you, an idiot?
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20110112_globalstats.html
TadCook on February 11 at 4:31 a.m.
This is a nearly fact-free article. For someone who uses sunspot cycles to predict weather or climate, the author seems to know little about sunspots or solar cycles.
First of all, sunspot activity has little correlation with climate. The biggest sunspot cycle in recorded history was Cycle 19, which peaked around 1957-1959, yet this was a relatively cool period.
He says there is a normal 11 year cycle from maxima to minima, but this is not true. The cycle from minima to minima is close to 11 years on average (but may range from 8-13 years), but sunspot cycles decline more slowly than they rise, so the time from maxima to minima averages about 7 years.
There are all sorts of completely wrong statements about data that anyone can look up. For instance, he says “September 2008 had no sunspots counted for the first time since 1913”.
This is false. Look at this table of sunspot numbers for all of 2008, and check September:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/old_indices/2008_DSD.txt
Activity was very low, as it would be for the solar minima, but you can see that the sunspot numbers on September 11, 22 and 23 were 12, 18 and 16 respectively. This is the official sunspot data from NOAA.
He also says there were only 55 sunspots in 2008, but from the table above if you count new sunspot groups in the New Regions column, they total 29 new ones for the year, low for a solar minimum, but not unprecedented.
The statement that “there may be a brief period of intense sunspot activity expected in late 2012, around the end of the Mayan calendar”. is just bizarre, unless you believe some of the wilder pronouncements on new age websites predicting the end of the world. No reputable astrophysicist has predicted this, and there is no known method for making this prediction.
You can see the latest prediction out this week on page 10:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1849.pdf
These are predicted smoothed sunspot numbers, averaged over a year, but there is no bump in activity centered on the end of 2012. What this shows is an expected maximum between February and July 2013, but it is a rough guess.
He writes, “the number of sunspots has remained relatively low, averaging about 10-30 per day. There have been days, even within the last month, of no sunspots at all”.
First of all there was only one day when no sunspots were visible in the past month, and that was January 27:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt
When he says the number of sunspots are averaging 10-30 per day, it is obvious he doesn’t know one of the most basic things about solar indices, that the sunspot number does not equal the number of sunspots. 10-30 sunspots per day would be high solar activity.
Sunspot numbers are reported by taking the number of visible sunspot groups, multiplying by 10, then adding a value of one for each spot visible in those groups. So the smallest daily non-zero sunspot number is 11. 30 sunspots visible on any day might yield a sunspot number of over 300, what one might see at the peak of a very large solar cycle.
The sunspot number on February 8, 2011 was 71, the same high value it was on February 8, 2010.
mjones21 on September 13 at 1:32 a.m.
I’d guess you guys were wrong, and the writer was right. Most writers, I think, research their articles..
http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2011/feb/10/low-sunspot-activity-may-spell-colder-weather-for/
mjones21 on September 13 at 1:33 a.m.
Here is some updated information, about less than a day old:
http://www.canada.com/technology/Scientists+predict+rare+hibernation+sunspots/4945119/story.html?id=4945119