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A breakdown of Emmys: Favorites, possible upsets

Chuck Barney, Contra Costa (Calif.) Times Contra Costa (Calif.) Times

They’ll crown prime time royalty at the annual Emmy bash Sunday night, and we’re eager to see who reigns supreme.

Of course, forecasting what the voters will do is often an exercise in futility. Just when you think they’re in repeat mode – three straight victories for “Mad Men” – they halt a seven-year win streak for “The Amazing Race” in the reality competition by honoring “Top Chef.”

Here’s a breakdown of the major categories, along with our best guesswork. Wager at your own risk.

Outstanding drama

The nominees: “Boardwalk Empire” (HBO); “Dexter” (Showtime); “Friday Night Lights” (DirecTV/NBC); “Game of Thrones” (HBO); “The Good Wife” (CBS); “Mad Men” (AMC)

The lowdown: We’d be thrilled to see “Friday Night Lights” pull off a stunning upset, but that’s a pipe dream. “Mad Men” arguably had its best season yet, and thus remains the show to beat. Of the HBO contenders, “Thrones” is our favorite, but Emmy voters typically give the cold shoulder to fantasy.

Outstanding actor, drama

The nominees: Steve Buscemi (“Boardwalk Empire”); Kyle Chandler (“Friday Night Lights”); Michael C. Hall (“Dexter”); Jon Hamm (“Mad Men”); Hugh Laurie (“House,” Fox); Timothy Olyphant (“Justified,” FX)

The lowdown: The guys in this category should thank their lucky stars that three-time winner Bryan Cranston (“Breaking Bad”) isn’t eligible this year. It wouldn’t break our heart to see Chandler or Buscemi prevail, but we get the feeling that it’s finally Hamm’s year.

Outstanding actress, drama

The nominees: Kathy Bates (“Harry’s Law,” NBC); Connie Britton (“Friday Night Lights”); Mireille Enos (“The Killing,” AMC); Mariska Hargitay (“Law & Order: SVU,” NBC); Elisabeth Moss (“Mad Men”); Julianna Margulies (“The Good Wife,” CBS)

The lowdown: Moss was amazing again, and no matter what you thought of “The Killing” or its aggravating finale, Enos was quietly stellar as a stoic homicide detective. Still, Margulies, who continues to do scintillating work as a betrayed – and now emboldened – spouse should have won last year. It’s time to right that wrong.

Outstanding comedy

The nominees: “30 Rock” (NBC); “The Big Bang Theory” (CBS); “Glee” (Fox); “Modern Family” (ABC); “The Office” (NBC); “Parks and Recreation” (NBC).

The lowdown: Three-time champ “30 Rock,” “Glee” and “The Office” all had uneven seasons. Despite an avalanche of critical love for “Parks and Recreation,” the voters likely will lean toward making “Modern Family” a repeat winner.

Outstanding actor, comedy

The nominees: Alec Baldwin (“30 Rock”); Steve Carell (“The Office”); Louis C.K. (“Louie,” FX); Johnny Galecki (“The Big Bang Theory”); Matt LeBlanc (“Episodes,” Showtime); Jim Parsons (“The Big Bang Theory”).

The lowdown: It’s good to see Galecki finally join his nerdy co-star at the party, and Louis C.K. and LeBlanc generated big laughs playing hilarious versions of themselves. Then again, it’s a bad joke that Carell never has won an Emmy in five previous tries; his sentimental send-off last spring reminded us of how much we loved delightfully clueless Michael Scott. And sentiment is hard to beat.

Outstanding actress, comedy

The nominees: Edie Falco (“Nurse Jackie,” Showtime); Tina Fey (“30 Rock”); Laura Linney (“The Big C,” Showtime); Melissa McCarthy (“Mike & Molly,” CBS); Martha Plimpton (“Raising Hope,” Fox); Amy Poehler (“Parks and Recreation”).

The lowdown: If we had a vote, it would go to Plimpton, an absolute hoot as the lovably acerbic mom in her raucous freshman comedy. But look for fabulous Linney to nab the trophy; playing a woman with cancer (and finding the humor in it) is Emmy bait, and voters tend to love movie stars who make the jump to television.