May 3, 2013 in City

Latest data hinting at growth

Economists predict promising jobs report today
Christopher S. Rugaber And Martin Crutsinger Associated Press

WASHINGTON – Fewer Americans are losing their jobs. Employers are struggling to squeeze more work from their staffs. The U.S. is producing so much oil that imports are plunging, narrowing the trade deficit.

A string of data Thursday raised hopes for stronger hiring and U.S. growth in coming months. More jobs would spur spending and help energize the economy, which has yet to regain full health nearly four years after the recession ended.

The economic reports came a day before the government will report how many jobs employers added in April. Economists think the gain will exceed the 88,000 jobs added in March, the fewest in nine months.

The government said Thursday that the number of Americans applying for unemployment aid fell last week to a seasonally adjusted 324,000, the fewest since January 2008.

Unemployment applications reflect the pace of layoffs: A steady drop means companies are shedding fewer workers. Eventually, they will hire to meet customer demand or to replace departed workers.

The four-week average of unemployment applications, which is less volatile than the weekly figure, sank to 342,250. That was near a five-year low.

The unemployment application figures “point to potential improvement moving into May,” said Ted Wieseman, executive director of Morgan Stanley Research.

The government also said Thursday that the productivity of U.S. workers barely grew from January through March after shrinking in the last three months of 2012. Productivity shows how much employees produce per hour of work. When it remains weak, employers can’t keep pulling more output from their staffs. As customer demand strengthens, they’ll need to hire.

Productivity grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.7 percent in the January-March quarter. And that was after it shrank in the October-December quarter. For all of 2012, productivity rose a scant 0.7 percent, after an even-punier 0.6 percent rise in 2011.

At the same time, the government said the U.S. trade deficit narrowed in March for a second month. The main reason: The daily flow of imported crude oil reached a 17-year low.

The trade gap shows how much the value of imports exceeds the value of exports. A smaller trade gap is good for economic growth because it means America is exporting more while spending less on foreign goods.

Today, economists expect the U.S. government to report that employers added more than 100,000 jobs in April but fewer than last year’s pace of nearly 185,000 jobs a month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 7.6 percent.

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