Exxon sees abundant oil, gas in future
NEW YORK – North America, once a sponge that sucked in a significant portion of the world’s oil, will instead be supplying the world with oil and other liquid hydrocarbons by the end of this decade, according to ExxonMobil’s annual long-term energy forecast.
And the “almost unspeakable” amount of natural gas found in recent years in the U.S. and elsewhere in North America will be enough to make the region one of the world’s biggest exporters of that fuel by 2025, even as domestic demand for it increases, according to Bill Colton, Exxon’s chief strategist.
“The world has such an improved outlook for supplies,” Colton said. “Peak oil theorists have been run out of town by American ingenuity.”
In a forecast that might make economists happy but environmentalists fret, Exxon’s two chief products, oil and natural gas, will be abundant and affordable enough to meet the rising demand for energy in the developing world as the global middle class swells to 5 billion from 2 billion and buys energy-hungry conveniences such as cars and air conditioners.
This is a result of advances in drilling technology that have made it possible for engineers to reach oil and gas in unconventional rock and extreme locations and quieted talk that the world was quickly running out of oil.
And it is despite what Exxon assumes will be increasingly strict policies around the world on emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases emitted by fossil fuel use that scientists say are triggering dangerous changes to the world’s climate.
Exxon’s outlook forecasts world energy supply and demand through 2040 and is updated every year. It is noted by investors and policymakers and used by Exxon to shape its long-term strategy.
Other recent scientific studies suggest oil and gas companies and government forecasters could be overestimating how much oil and gas is accessible in the shale formations that have fueled the U.S. boom in oil and gas production.
Ken Cohen, Exxon’s government and public affairs chief, said the studies “are not consonant with the facts.” He said Exxon is finding instead that improving technology is increasing productivity of each well they drill.