WASHINGTON – Business economists are almost equally divided over whether the Federal Reserve will pare its bond purchases at the current pace through year’s end or pause to let the economy recover further.
The views were unveiled Monday by the National Association for Business Economics. The NABE conducted its twice-a-year survey of 230 members between Jan. 30 and Feb. 6, before Janet Yellen’s first appearance before Congress as Fed chair.
About 43 percent of NABE members said they thought the Fed would complete its pullback in bond purchases in the fourth quarter. About 42 percent thought the Fed would finish in 2015 or later.
At each of its last two policy meetings, the Fed cut bond purchases by $10 billion to the current pace of $65 billion a month. There are seven meetings left in 2014. The Fed’s bond purchases have been intended to drive down loan rates to stimulate spending and economic growth.
A majority of those surveyed agreed with the Fed’s gradual end to its accommodative stance, with 57 percent saying current monetary policy is “about right.” About 37 percent thought it was “too stimulative.”
Cutting back on the bond purchases and the prospect of further cutbacks has already prompted mortgage rates to rise.
Most respondents thought the Fed would wait until 2015 to start raising its key short-term interest rate above the current level near zero. Yellen told Congress earlier this month that the Fed would keep the rate near zero “well past” the time the unemployment rate falls below 6.5 percent, as long as inflation remains low. The unemployment rate was 6.6 percent in January, a five-year low.
As for government spending, 21 percent thought fiscal policy was “too stimulative,” while 37 percent thought it was “about right.” About 39 percent thought fiscal policy was “too restrictive.”