Dan Caesar’s Thursday night NFL pick

Kickoff: 5:25 p.m., NFL Network Records: Buffalo 5-4, 3-1 away. Miami 5-4, 2-2 home.

Line: MIA by 6. O/U: 42 1/2

Synopsis: A key matchup of second-place teams in the AFC East and both come off losses. Both teams are similar, with a defense-first approach. Neither is worse than 10th in the league in any of the four major defensive statistical categories. Miami was hit with a significant injury last weekend when left tackle Branden Albert suffered a season-ending knee ailment. Buffalo has won the last three matchups in the series and can get the job done again. Pick: Bills 20-17

Dan Caesar, St. Louis Post-Dispatch