Dan Caesar’s Thursday night NFL pick

Kickoff: 5:25 p.m., CBS Records: Indianapolis (3-2 overall, 1-1 road), Houston (3-2, 2-0 home) Line: IND by 3 O/U: 46

Synopsis: It’s a battle for the AFC South lead in a lopsided series that Indianapolis leads 20-4. The Colts have won their last nine Thursday games. The Colts’ defense, after a rough start, has settled down and hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in its last three outings and faces turnover-plagued QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (six interceptions over last three games). Colts QB Andrew Luck keys the NFL’s top passing attack, a bad sign for Houston as its pass defense is 20th. Pick: Colts 27-23.

– Dan Caesar, St. Louis Post-Dispatch