Dan Caesar’s Week 8 NFL picks
Falcons vs. Lions
Kickoff: 6:30 a.m., London (Fox 28)
Records: Atlanta 2-5. Detroit 5-2.
Line: DET by 3 1/2 O/U: 46 1/2
Synopsis: Detroit unleashes the NFL’s top-rated defense (290.3 yards per game) on inconsistent Atlanta, which managed just 254 yards in a blowout loss last week to Baltimore.
Pick: Lions 27-17
Vikings at Bucs
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Records: Minnesota 2-5, 1-3 road. Tampa Bay 1-5, 0-3 home.
Line: TB by 2 1/2 O/U: 42 1/2
Synopsis: Battle of cellar-dwellers as Minnesota has the NFL’s 29th-rated offense and Tampa Bay is No. 30. Difference here figures to be on the other side of the ball, with the Vikings having the clear edge. They have the No. 13 ‘D’ while the Bucs are last.
Pick: Vikings 27-20
Bears at Patriots
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Records: Chicago 3-4, 3-1 road. New England 5-2, 3-0 home.
Line: NE by 6 O/U: 51 1/2
Synopsis: New England is clicking, having won three in a row, but is minus DE Chandler Jones (hip) – its sacks leader. That’s just another on a long list of defensive injuries for the Pats, who allowed 218 rushing yards to the Jets last week. So look for Chicago to count on RB Matt Forte, the NFL’s No. 5 rusher (448 yards).
Pick: Patriots 31-27
Rams at Chiefs
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Records: St. Louis 2-4, 1-1 road. Kansas City 3-3, 1-1 home.
Line: KC by 7 O/U: 44
Synopsis: The Chiefs’ forte is their Jamaal Charles-led running game (No. 3 in the NFL), and with the Rams’ run ‘D’ being poor (No. 28), expect KC to go to that attack often. St. Louis beat Seattle last week with trick plays. Magic act leaves the stage here.
Pick: Chiefs 30-20
Bills at Jets
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Records: Buffalo 4-3, 2-1 road. New York 1-6, 1-3 home.
Line: NY by 3 O/U: 40 1/2
Synopsis: Buffalo has lost its top two running backs to injuries, so backups are expected to split those duties vs. the NFL’s No. 8 run ‘D’. Given those factors, Bills QB Kyle Orton might try to air it out vs. the No. 15 pass ‘D.’ NY seems primed for a big game.
Pick: Jets 24-20
Dolphins at Jaguars
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Records: Miami 3-3, 2-1 road. Jacksonville 1-6, 1-2 home.
Line: MIA by 6 O/U: 42 1/2
Synopsis: Miami unleashes its fourth-rated ‘D,’ which shut down Chicago last week, on a team that scores an NFL-low 15 points per game. Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill is on the rise and is dangerous running, with 132 rushing yards over his last three outings.
Pick: Dolphins 20-17
Texans at Titans
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Records: Houston 3-4, 1-3 road. Tennessee 2-5, 1-2 home.
Line: HOU by 3 O/U: 42 1/2
Synopsis: Struggling Tennessee turns to third-string rookie QB Zach Mettenberger, and regular readers of this space know the drill – teams whose QB makes his first NFL start, as Mettenberger does here, are 22-50 over the last 7-plus seasons (1-2 this year).
Pick: Texans 24-13
Ravens at Bengals
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Records: Baltimore 5-2, 2-1 road. Cincinnati 3-2-1, 2-0-1 home.
Line: BAL by 1 1/2 O/U: 45 1/2
Synopsis: Big AFC North showdown, but suddenly struggling Cincinnati (winless after a 3-0 start) is likely to be without WR A.J. Green (toe) again. That’s not good against a soaring team that has outscored its foes by a league-best 89 points. Still, Bengals need this one bad.
Pick: Bengals 24-20
Eagles at Cardinals
Kickoff: 1:05 p.m. (Fox 28)
Records: Philadelphia 5-1, 1-1 road. Arizona 5-1, 3-0 home.
Line: ARI by 2 O/U: 48 1/2
Synopsis: Dandy matchup as Arizona has QB Carson Palmer primed for his third start after returning from a shoulder problem and he faces the No. 23 pass ‘D.’ The Eagles come off their bye but key playmaker Darren Sproles is questionable because of a knee ailment. Philadelphia loves the ground game, but Arizona has the NFL’s No. 2 run ‘D.’
Pick: Cardinals 24-20
Colts at Steelers
Kickoff: 1:25 p.m. (CBS)
Records: Indianapolis 5-2, 2-1 road. Pittsburgh 4-3, 2-1 home.
Line: IND by 3 O/U: 49
Synopsis: Indianapolis QB Andrew Luck guides the NFL’s No. 1 attack vs. the No. 15 ‘D.’ Pittsburgh has been erratic, but it does move the ball and Indy’s due for a downer.
Pick: Steelers 24-20
Raiders at Browns
Kickoff: 1:25 p.m.
Records: Oakland 0-6, 0-2 road. Cleveland 3-3, 2-1 home.
Line: CLE by 7 O/U: 43 1/2
Synopsis: Cleveland has been wildly inconsistent, blasting Pittsburgh two weeks ago but being routed last week by previously-winless Jacksonville. But Oakland wished it had that problem – it just can’t win at all, having lost 12 in a row dating to last year.
Pick: Browns 27-13
Packers at Saints
Kickoff: 5:30 p.m. (NBC)
Records: Green Bay 5-2, 2-2 road. New Orleans 2-4, 2-0 home.
Line: NO by 2 O/U: 55 1/2
Synopsis: Green Bay’s defensive backfield is banged up, a bad sign vs. New Orleans’ second-ranked aerial attack and look for QB Drew Brees to take advantage. Aaron Rodgers has led the Pack to four wins in a row, but is in a tough spot here as Saints are nails at home in prime time, and simply need this one more than GB.
Pick: Saints 33-27
Redskins at Cowboys
Monday: 5:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Records: Washington 2-5, 0-3 road. Dallas 6-1, 3-1 home.
Line: DAL by 9 1/2 O/U: 49 1/2
Synopsis: With Kirk Cousins benched and Robert Griffin III (ankle) not quite ready to return, it looks as if the Redskins will give QB Colt McCoy his first start in three years. The Cowboys, who have won six in a row, send the DeMarco Murray-led No. 1 ground game against the No. 12 run ‘D.’
Pick: Cowboys 31-20