NFL week 4 picks
Dolphins vs. Raiders
Kickoff: 10 a.m., London
Records: Miami 1-2, Oakland 0-3
Line: MIA by 3 1/2 O/U: 41
Synopsis: Good thing this one is in London, so American fans won’t be expected to attend a game between teams with a combined record of 1-5. Ryan Tannehill is expected to keep Dolphins QB job for at least this game despite being one of the league’s worst passers in many statistical categories. Oakland’s no better, though, with rookie Derek Carr at QB.
Pick: Dolphins 20-17
Packers at Bears
Kickoff: 10 a.m. (Fox 28)
Records: Green Bay 1-2, Chicago 2-1
Line: GB by 2 O/U: 50 1/2
Synopsis: Green Bay seeks to bounce back from its lackluster outing in Detroit, and face a hot Chicago team that comes home after two road upset wins. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is 15th in passing yards (Brian Hoyer and Geno Smith have more), and Chicago allows just 20.7 points per game. The Bears should try to run a lot – Green Bay permits 156 yards a game on the ground.
Pick: Bears 27-20
Bills at Texans
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Records: Buffalo 2-1, Houston 2-1
Line: HOU by 3 O/U: 42
Synopsis: Houston comes off its first loss, with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick being intercepted three times by the Giants, but now is at home as he faces one of his old teams. He should get back on track, as the Bills are 26th vs. the pass. But key Texans RB Arian Foster didn’t play last week (hamstring) and will be a game-time decision today. Look for Bills to quickly test the Texans’ run defense (194 yards allowed last week).
Pick: Texans 24-17
Titans at Colts
Kickoff: 10 a.m. (CBS)
Records: Tennessee 1-2, Indianapolis 1-2
Line: IND by 7 1/2 O/U: 46
Synopsis: Indy QB Andrew Luck threw for four TDs last week, but that was vs. lowly Jacksonville. Here he operates against the NFL’s No. 2 pass ‘D,’ so look for the Colts to try their ground game early. Meanwhile, Tennessee QB Jake Locker is questionable with a wrist injury. If he can’t go, Charlie Whitehurst – who hasn’t thrown a regular-season pass since 2011 – starts.
Pick: Colts 27-17
Panthers at Ravens
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Records: Carolina 2-1, Baltimore 2-1
Line: BAL by 3 O/U: 40
Synopsis: Steve Smith, who is Carolina’s career leading receiver, now is the Ravens’ top wideout this year and faces his former club for the first time. But Carolina’s pass ‘D’ is tough, so look for Baltimore to turn to its ground game. On the other side, Carolina’s once-potent ground attack is the NFL’s fourth-worst.
Pick: Ravens 23-17
Lions at Jets
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Records: Detroit 2-1, New York 1-2
Line: DET by 2 O/U: 44 1/2
Synopsis: New York loves to run – its 157.7 yards per game is No. 2 in the NFL – but that is negated as Detroit has the No. 2 run ‘D,’ allowing just 63.7 yards per outing. That could force Jets into passing more than they like. NY has the NFL’s best run defense, so look for Detroit’s Matthew Stafford to be busy throwing.
Pick: Lions 26-20
Bucs at Steelers
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Records: Tampa Bay 0-3, Pittsburgh 2-1
Line: PIT by 7 1/2 O/U: 45
Synopsis: Pittsburgh, who finally looked good last week at Carolina, now hosts downtrodden Tampa Bay – which has had 10 days to think about its 54-16 loss in Atlanta. The Steelers will unleash their top-rated ground attack on the No. 18 run ‘D.’ Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is 16-2 at home vs. NFC foes.
Pick: Steelers 31-16
Jaguars at Chargers
Kickoff: 1:05 p.m.
Records: Jacksonville 0-3, San Diego 2-1
Line: SD by 13 O/U: 45
Synopsis: If things aren’t bad enough for Jacksonville (last in defense, second-worst in offense), the signal-calling duties are being handed over to Blake Bortles. And teams whose QB makes his first NFL start, as Bortles does, are 22-49 over the last 7-plus seasons (1-1 this year).
Pick: Chargers 33-13
Eagles at 49ers
Kickoff: 1:25 p.m. (Fox 28)
Records: Philadelphia 3-0, San Francisco 1-2
Line: SF by 5 O/U: 50 1/2
Synopsis: Eagles are 3-0, but have had to come from behind each time and now face a foe that hasn’t scored in the fourth quarter. The Eagles average 33.7 points, No. 2 in the NFL, but face the No. 6 ‘D’ here. And Philly’s ‘D’ ranks 26th. San Francisco is desperate to win after two losses.
Pick: 49ers 28-20
Falcons at Vikings
Kickoff: 1:25 p.m.
Records: Atlanta 2-1, Minnesota 1-2
Line: ATL by 3 O/U: 47
Synopsis: With QB Matt Cassell done for the year (broken foot), Vikes’ Teddy Bridgewater makes his first NFL start (see Jaguars item above to see how tough that is). Plus Minnesota RB Adrain Peterson remains banished. It’s a tough go for the Vikes to keep up with Atlanta’s top-rated offense.
Pick: Falcons 27-20
Saints at Cowboys
Kickoff: 5:30 p.m. (NBC)
Records: New Orleans 1-2, Dallas 2-1
Line: NO by 3 O/U: 53 1/2
Synopsis: Dallas’ ‘D’ isn’t as bad as some think (it ranks 21st) but faces the Drew Brees-led attack that has helped the Saints to four wins in the last five meetings. But Dallas has momentum after its comeback win last week in St. Louis, and New Orleans has lost its last five regular-season road contests.
Pick: Cowboys 31-30
Patriots at Chiefs
Monday: 5:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Records: New England 2-1, Kansas City 1-2
Line: NE by 3 O/U: 45 1/2
Synopsis: KC running back Jamaal Charles is expected back from an ankle injury that KO’d him last week. Chiefs’ ‘D’ should pressure New England’s Tom Brady, who has been sacked seven times already. NE is on the road for third time already and its offense is stale, ranking 26th.
Pick: Chiefs 23-20