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Shawn Vestal: It seems likely City Council will keep its liberal majority

In the wake of last week’s primary election, there is a much more interesting question than whether Mayor David Condon will hang on for a second term.

Will the City Council’s liberal, veto-proof supermajority stand? Or will it be demoted to a simple majority? Or will it be bolstered even further, to a “super-duper” majority?

It’s an especially important question as the degree of communication and cooperation between the mayor and the council seems to be worsening. Would a slightly weaker – or even stronger – council majority change the dynamic between the fiefdoms of Condon and City Council President Ben Stuckart? What would it mean in terms of the impending issue of mandated sick leave for many workers in the city – an issue on which a council approval and a mayoral veto is not so hard to imagine?

Coming out of the primaries, the balance of power on the council is clearly the issue to watch. At this point, if Condon blows it – after winning two-thirds of the primary vote and following a term of accomplishments that even a lot of lefties have to acknowledge has been impressive – it will rival the Seahawks’ goal-line pass. But three council seats are at play, with primary votes that provide a lot of fodder for hypothetical scenarios.

At this point, it’s plausible to foresee liberal majorities of 4-3, 5-2 and even 6-1 – depending on how the close races tip, where the votes of the third-place finishers go, and what effect the increased turnout from the dismal 30 percent of the primary has.

Could a conservative majority take over? It’s possible, but it would take a win by John Ahern – the great-great-grandfather of the Eighth Man movement – over Stuckart, and a sweep of conservative candidates in the other races.

More likely is some degree of liberal majority. It would be interesting to see if the current supermajority is upheld by voters, given that only four of the five liberals on the council were elected. The fifth, Karen Stratton, was appointed to replace conservative Steve Salvatori – a decision that critics complained was an ideological bait-and-switch.

It now seems quite possible that voters will empanel a supermajority themselves. All it would take, if Stuckart keeps his seat, is one liberal victory out of three races to keep the City Council veto-proof.

Here’s the way those races broke down in the primary:

Mike Fagan, the council’s lone remaining incumbent conservative, won by nearly a 2-1 margin over Randy Ramos. Ramos barely beat third-place finisher Ben Krauss, who did not even campaign.

Incumbent Stratton also defeated her challenger, but by a narrower margin. She picked up 42 percent of the vote against Evan Verduin’s 33 percent. But two other candidates swept up a quarter of the primary votes.

The race to replace resigning council member Mike Allen is closer, with conservative LaVerne Biel taking 38 percent of the primary vote to Lori Kinnear’s 35 percent. Third-place finisher John Waite, who ran as a progressive, claimed 27 percent of the vote – votes that will play an important part in the way the race plays out in the general election.

Condon has endorsed Biel and Verduin. Stuckart has endorsed Stratton and Kinnear. It will be interesting to see how each supports their candidates of choice as the campaign rolls on.

The realistic path to a continued liberal supermajority, if Stuckart wins, would involve either Stratton or Kinnear winning. The realistic path for conservatives to return the council to a simple liberal majority, if Stuckart wins, would be a Fagan-Biel-Verduin trifecta. Reading the tea leaves from the primary makes both outcomes seem possible, but if I was betting I’d be putting money on the supermajority.

But I’m not betting. Forecasting the general election through the lens of the primary can go wildly awry, as we all saw in the mayoral campaign four years ago – when the incumbent, Mary Verner, emerged from the primary with nearly a 2-1 lead over her little-known challenger, David Condon.

Shawn Vestal can be reached at (509) 459-5431 or shawnv@spokesman.com. Follow him on Twitter at @vestal13.

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