Spin Control: Budget battles continue to baffle Legislature

OLYMPIA – As you read this, it is Day 150 of the legislative session, a deal on the 2015-17 operating budget has yet to emerge and the only thing anyone can say for sure is the 2015 session can’t go for more than another 200 days.

Because after that it will be 2016.

OK, not that funny, but it passes for humor in Olympia, where legislative leaders meet behind closed doors with each other, the governor and a few people with intimate knowledge of the way the state raises and spends money. Reporters have been trying to divine tidbits of information about the progress of budget talks from monosyllabic answers legislators give to questions going in or out of negotiations, or the fact that they don’t answer, or their facial expressions, or the fact that they duck out a back door of the conference room so we can’t see their facial expressions. But to convince the editors that Spin Control is not spending these nice summer days paddling a kayak around the South Puget Sound, we offer some answers to common questions about the budget discussions as they stand.

Why do you keep writing about “the budget”? Aren’t there several budgets?

That’s correct. The state’s transportation budget, which uses gasoline taxes and other revenue connected to motor vehicles and transportation for roads, bridges and mass transit, has already passed. There’s also a capital budget, which it uses for large and small building projects, and a second transportation budget that could be used for new projects if a new gasoline tax is passed. The operating budget, sometimes called the general fund, which pays for most of the other programs, projects, and state salaries and benefits, is the biggest and the focus of all the negotiations. If a deal is struck on that, the others might fall into place.

How big is it?

Depends on who you ask, and when you ask. At the start of the year, when the governor, the Democrats who control the House and the Republicans who control the Senate each started drawing up spending plans for 2015-17, state economists estimated the state would collect about $36.3 billion in the current taxes and fees that go into the general fund. That number was up from the previous two years by about $3 billion, but the growing cost of existing programs was going to eat most of that and the state faces some big-ticket items that some or all of the budgeteers wanted to add, like raises for state employees, smaller class sizes for at least some grades, and court orders to spend more money on public schools and mental health care, which had been cut back during the recession. In February and May, economists said the recovery was going so well that there would be more money and the current figure is about $36.6 billion. Both sides want to do good things with that money, although not necessarily the same good things.

So how much do the two sides want to spend?

The Senate Republicans have a budget with about $37.9 billion in spending, and House Democrats have one that’s about $38.4 billion.

But, that’s more than they’ve got. Where would they get the extra money?

Senate Republicans move some money out of other funds that are set aside for certain things like capital projects, liquor taxes and the state’s newest tax source, marijuana. Democrats complain, but moving money like this is a standard Olympia budget tactic to fill a gap, and both parties have done it in the past. House Democrats have proposed some tax increases or new taxes to cover the gap. Senate Republicans say they will not support new taxes and have said they won’t discuss the higher spending level unless the House passes the taxes to cover the difference. House Democrats say they have the votes to pass their taxes, but insist there’s no point as long as the Senate Republicans say they won’t pass them.

So it’s essentially a Mexican standoff?

Let’s not get into unfortunate ethnic stereotypes. Let’s just say Senate Republicans may accept more “revenue” but not more “taxes.”

What’s the difference? Isn’t there a saying in Olympia that all money is green?

Let’s not get into unfortunate tinting aspersions. Supporting new taxes would be a problem for some candidates in 2016, particularly if it’s their voters being taxed. Supporting new revenue, not so much.

So are the 2016 elections the biggest worry for legislators seeking a budget deal right now?

No. For many of them the biggest worry is housing.

Like high cost of housing in Seattle or foreclosures in some depressed counties?

No, their housing. Most legislators returned home to wait for a budget deal, and their local apartment leases ended with the regular session in April. They worry about where they’ll stay this week if a deal is struck and they have to return to the capital, where all available lodging has been booked by spectators of the U.S. Open at nearby Chambers Bay. There’s some talk of pitching tents on the Capitol grounds, or rolling out sleeping bags on the granite floors of the Rotunda, like the Occupy protesters did for several nights in 2011.

That sounds pretty rough. Isn’t there anyplace else they could stay?

They might get temporary digs in a local university dorm, which could lead to a movie script.

“House of Cards, Olympia Edition”?

Or “Animal House 2 – the Geezer Version.”