Mali attack latest to rattle global security

JOHANNESBURG – From cafes in Paris to the teeming markets of Nigeria, in tourist resorts on the Sinai peninsula and now a glitzy hotel in the dusty capital of Mali, the message Islamist terrorists sent to the world over the last several weeks is that no one – almost anywhere – is safe.

The attack Friday, in which armed gunmen stormed the Radisson Blu Hotel in Bamako and swept through the rooms, leaving an estimated 20 people dead, targeted a key region of French anti-terrorism operations in Africa only a week after Islamist attackers launched a wave of shootings and bombings across Paris.

The attacks in Paris, for which the militant group Islamic State claimed responsibility, seemed to signal a sharp escalation of the Syrian-based organization’s ability to project lethal mayhem far outside the Middle East, particularly when combined with the bombing last month of a Russian passenger jet over Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula – an attack that also is being linked to Islamic State.

But Friday’s attack in Mali underscored that Islamic State’s rival al-Qaida and its affiliates remain a serious threat. A group led by al-Qaida’s most notorious leader in northern Africa, Algerian militant Moktar Belmoktar, claimed responsibility for the deadly hotel assault.

Belmokhtar, who leads a group of Tuaregs and Arabs known as Al Murabitoun, is a staunch al-Qaida loyalist who has denounced Islamic State for dividing Muslim militants. He led a 2013 operation in Algeria in which militants laid siege to a gas facility in the eastern Algeria city of Ajdabiya, an operation that included taking 800 hostages and killing 39 foreigners, including three Americans and six Britons.

Friday’s attack on the hotel appeared targeted at French interests, with France the standout Western military power in West Africa fighting Islamist terrorist groups. Malian militant groups loyal to Islamic State and al-Qaida have called for continued attacks on France and French interests in Africa and elsewhere.

The hotel attack, signaling a dangerous surge in anti-Western radicalism in west and northern Africa, comes amid a deteriorating security situation in Mali, with Islamist militant groups from the north increasingly infiltrating the south of the country to launch attacks.

It also highlights growing concerns that Islamic State is sending envoys deep into West Africa to try to entice more militants to carry its flag, after it successfully recruited the Nigerian terrorist group Boko Haram under its umbrella in March. Yet al-Qaida has retained a strong presence in Africa, with the loyalty of groups in Mali, Somalia and elsewhere.

As is apparent in this dangerous new world, militants – whatever their loyalties or how extensive their international connections – don’t require sophisticated weapons or even particularly complex planning to wreak maximum damage. The attacks in Paris and Mali alike were perpetrated by a handful of people wielding automatic weapons and in some cases explosives, targeting vulnerable, lightly guarded civilian facilities and exhibiting a willingness to die carrying out their operations.

The model was popularized by terrorist groups in Africa, notably in the 2013 Westgate mall attack, carried out in Nairobi, Kenya, by four attackers from the al-Qaida-linked Somali terrorist group the al-Shabab, which claimed 67 lives. Likewise, an al-Shabab attack on Garissa University College in northern Kenya in March was carried out by a handful of gunmen. It killed 148, mainly students.

Western interests in African countries with homegrown terrorist groups, including Kenya, Mali, Somalia and Nigeria, face a heightened risk, security analysts say, given high levels of corruption in police and security services, intelligence failures and lack of coordination between different wings of the security forces.

One of the key threats to the West with the continuing violence in Africa, terrorism analysts say, is that extremist allies of Islamic State, such as Boko Haram, may embrace the global warfare of Islamic State and turn their attention to attacks on Western targets. Boko Haram has so far focused on attacks on Nigerian targets – initially, attacks on Nigerian security forces, but increasingly, its targets have been civilians, including children.

“To date, they have not shown themselves to be a direct threat to Western countries. But I wouldn’t rule it out in future,” J. Peter Pham, director of the Africa Center at the Atlantic Council, said of Boko Haram.

One key ideological difference between al-Qaida affiliates and Islamic State loyalists in Africa is that gunmen from al-Qaida-linked groups often call on victims to prove they’re Muslim, by reciting Quranic verses or the Shahada, a profession of Islamic belief, or by answering questions proving their knowledge of Islam, before setting those victims free.

Islamic State, on the other hand, sees all those who don’t embrace its violent vision of Islam, including Muslims, as infidels who must be slaughtered. It has threatened more attacks on France, Russia, the U.S. and other countries involved in airstrikes in Syria and Iraq against the group, and was responsible for killing 6,073 people last year.

Secretary of State John Kerry said Thursday the U.S. had succeeded in neutralizing al-Qaida as an effective force, and would neutralize Islamic State even more quickly.

But Bill Roggio, author of the Long War Journal blog about the global war on terrorism, said al-Qaida remains dangerous.

“I would argue that al-Qaida is as great a threat as it was the day before 9/11. Today, it’s running insurgencies in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, Libya, Mali, Egypt. We can go on and on. When you put all that together, it’s impossible to come to the conclusion that al-Qaida has been neutralized,” he said.

“They want to kill French. They want to kill Americans. It’s part of their strategy to get everyone out of the country so they can get control,” he said, referring to Friday’s attack.