Spokane critics take their best guess for Oscar night
Much of the discussion surrounding this year’s Academy Award nominations has focused on omission. For the second year in a row, all nominees in the major acting categories are white, and it inspired a number of cultural writers and critics to point out performances by actors of color – Benicio Del Toro in “Sicario,” Idris Elba in “Beasts of No Nation,” Oscar Isaac in “Ex Machina,” Samuel L. Jackson in “The Hateful Eight” – that were deserving of nominations.
The brouhaha has actually inspired the Academy to modify its eligibility rules to be more inclusive, which is obviously a step in the right direction: I’d like to think that Hollywood will produce more interesting and thought-provoking films by giving a platform to as many distinctive voices as possible, and it will be interesting to see how next year’s batch of nominees will be affected by the changes.
With the Oscar ceremony airing tonight (host Chris Rock should have plenty of monologue material), Dan Webster and I are going to focus on whom the Academy did nominate. As we’ve done for the past several years, we’ll give you a rundown of the six major Oscar categories, selecting which films and performances we think are destined to take home Oscar gold and whom we’d vote for if we had a ballot. Some of these predictions are sure things; others are more of a mystery.
– Nathan Weinbender
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale (“The Big Short”), Tom Hardy (“The Revenant”), Mark Ruffalo (“Spotlight”), Mark Rylance (“Bridge of Spies”), Sylvester Stallone (“Creed”)
NW: I really like all of these performances – I’m especially glad Hardy and Rylance weren’t forgotten. But Stallone, in his seventh turn as prizefighter Rocky Balboa, seems to have this one all locked up, and I hope he wins. Much of the impact of his performance is tied to the emotional history of the character, and in “Creed,” Stallone reminds us why we fell in love with Rocky in the first place.
Who I’d vote for: Sylvester Stallone
Who will win: Sylvester Stallone
DW: A category that traditionally displays an array of unbelievable performances, the 2016 version is no different. Bale, Hardy and Ruffalo were amazing, and Rylance was quietly effective. But, ironically, the gold will likely go to the only white star of a film about a black boxer.
Who I’d vote for: Tom Hardy or Christian Bale
Who will win: Sylvester Stallone
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Jason Leigh (“The Hateful Eight”), Rooney Mara (“Carol”), Rachel McAdams (“Spotlight”), Alicia Vikander (“The Danish Girl”), Kate Winslet (“Steve Jobs”)
NW: I’m not over the moon about any of these performances, but I think Mara’s is the least showy of the bunch, and her sexual awakening is the emotional crux of Todd Haynes’ great “Carol.” How will the Academy vote? I’m really not sure, but since Vikander won the Screen Actors Guild award (though she should have been recognized for her stunning work in “Ex Machina” instead), she’s as good a guess as any.
Who I’d vote for: Rooney Mara
Who will win: Alicia Vikander
DW: Another category boasting several impressive performances. Vikander is the newcomer, facing a quartet of familiar names, including Leigh, McAdams and Mara. But past winner Winslet, Fassbender’s foil in “Steve Jobs,” should be the favorite.
Who I’d vote for: Kate Winslet
Who will win: Kate Winslet
Best Actor: Bryan Cranston (“Trumbo”), Matt Damon (“The Martian”), Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Revenant”), Michael Fassbender (“Steve Jobs”), Eddie Redmayne (“The Danish Girl”)
NW: DiCaprio had this one in the bag before anyone even saw “The Revenant.” I’m not that enthusiastic about the film or his performance: He’s getting the Oscar this year simply because of he’s never won before. I’ll emphatically cast my vote for Fassbender, the magnetic, furiously inventive glue holding together Danny Boyle and Aaron Sorkin’s uneven biopic. He’s one of my favorite actors working today.
Who I’d vote for: Michael Fassbender
Who will win: Leonardo DiCaprio
DW: Redmayne won last year, Cranston gives what is politely called a “bravura performance” and maybe 17 movie fans saw what Fassbender did. That leaves the Oscar up to two popular performers and past nominees: Damon (his third acting nod) and DiCaprio (his fifth). Consider. Dart. Tossed.
Who I’d vote for: Leonardo DiCaprio
Who will win: Leonardo DiCaprio
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett (“Carol”), Brie Larson (“Room”), Jennifer Lawrence (“Joy”), Charlotte Rampling (“45 Years”), Saoirse Ronan (“Brooklyn”)
NW: This is easily the richest category of the night, despite the arbitrary nature of Lawrence’s nomination for the forgettable “Joy.” I’ll place my vote for Ronan, though, because her beautifully modulated performance is the reason “Brooklyn” works as well as it does. Larson seems to be the favorite, however, and it’ll be a deserving win.
Who I’d vote for: Saoirse Ronan
Who will win: Brie Larson
DW: Rampling is the long shot, Lawrence and Blanchett starred in movies that didn’t earn universal acclaim, and the precociously talented Ronan likely has Oscars in her future – though not this year. That leaves “Room” star Brie Larson.
Who I’d vote for: Saoirse Ronan
Who will win: Brie Larson
Best Director: Lenny Abrahamson (“Room”), Alejandro González Iñárritu (“The Revenant”), Tom McCarthy (“Spotlight”), Adam McKay (“The Big Short”), George Miller (“Mad Max: Fury Road”)
NW: The Directors Guild of America gave its top prize to Iñárritu, which likely means the Academy will follow suit. If he wins, it’ll be the third time a director has nabbed two Oscars in consecutive years – only Joseph L. Mankiewicz and John Ford could claim such a feat. Despite the craft on display in “The Revenant,” I prefer the craft of “Fury Road,” and my vote would go to Miller.
Who I’d vote for: George Miller (“Mad Max: Fury Road”)
Who will win: Alejandro González Iñárritu (“The Revenant”)
DW: I can’t remember the last time I saw five such deserving nominees (which at least partially explains why Ridley Scott, director of “The Martian,” isn’t among their number). I’d be fine with either McKay, McCarthy or Abrahamson. But for pure filmmaking energy and skill, I choose a madman from Mexico over one from Australia – though the Academy might not agree.
Who I’d vote for: Alejandro González Iñárritu (“The Revenant”)
Who will win: George Miller (“Mad Max: Fury Road”)
Best Picture: “The Big Short,” “Bridge of Spies,” “Brooklyn,” “Mad Max: Fury Road,” “The Martian,” “The Revenant,” “Room,” “Spotlight”
NW: I chose “Mad Max: Fury Road” as the best film of the year, so I’m choosing it again here. I’m thrilled the Academy recognized it. It doesn’t have a shot at winning, although there’s no clear frontrunner in this category. “The Revenant” has some considerable heart behind it – that almost certain best director win helps – and “Spotlight” seems like a respectable choice, as well. But I’m banking on “The Big Short” taking home the gold: It received a best picture award from the Producers Guild of America, which has correctly predicted the Oscar winner for the past eight years.
What I’d vote for: “Mad Max: Fury Road”
What will win: “The Big Short”
DW: I continue to be no fan of best picture lists that exceed the same number of the other top categories. I could easily have cut this year’s Best Picture competitors to five worthy nominees. From there, though … again, toss that dart.
What I’d vote for: “Spotlight”
What will win: “Mad Max: Fury Road”