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Experts predict tight game when Cincinnati meets Saint Joseph’s

Saint Joseph head coach Phil Martelli talks to his players during a time out in the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against George Washington in the Atlantic 10 men’s tournament, Friday, March 11, 2016, in New York. (Mary Altaffer / Associated Press)
Saint Joseph head coach Phil Martelli talks to his players during a time out in the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against George Washington in the Atlantic 10 men’s tournament, Friday, March 11, 2016, in New York. (Mary Altaffer / Associated Press)
By Greg Lee gregl@spokesman.com(509) 844-8168

Rare is the year when a double-digit seed is considered a threat to move deep into the NCAA men’s basketball tournament.

Such is the case this season. One can understand why middle-of-the-road seeds such as the No. 8 Saint Joseph’s Hawks and the No. 9 Cincinnati Bearcats believe they can have extended runs.

In most years, the collective losses of the No. 1 seeds is single digits. This year top seeds Oregon, Virginia, Kansas and North Carolina have a combined 23 defeats.

“None of us are infallible,” Bearcats coach Mick Cronin said.

Saint Joseph’s (27-7) and Cincinnati (22-10) aren’t looking beyond their first-round matchup Friday at the Arena, the last of the 32 openers that is scheduled to tip off at 6:57 p.m.

One tourney prognosticator said the St. Joe/Cincinnati matchup should be one of most competitive games in the first round.

The winner will most likely meet one of those No. 1 seeds, Oregon, on Sunday.

“I think you’re going to see a microcosm of our season in this tournament with a lot of close games …” Cronin said. “I just believe that the tournament is evenly matched. You watch games, it’s across the board really. The misnomer is college basketball is down. I think it’s up.”

The Bearcats’ record, with 10 losses, is misleading. Three losses were by two points, one by four, one in overtime, one in double overtime and the most recent in four overtimes.

“I don’t think anybody’s great this year,” Cronin said. “I’m sure everybody is going to pick their favorites, but all year we heard there was parity.”

Hawks coach Phil Martelli said in previous years opponents were naturally intimidated when the names of top seeds were revealed.

“The other thing that parity has done is it’s eliminated any fear that you might have,” Martelli said. “So, whatever name popped up, you were concerned, but some of the monsters that popped up in years past you thought, ‘I hope that we have a nice charter (flight) and a nice hotel, because we can’t beat them.’ ”

The key for Cincinnati begins with defense. The Bearcats rank eighth in the nation in defensive efficiency, allowing 62.9 points per game. Most of the time the Bearcats use a matchup 2-3 zone.

Saint Joseph’s averages 77.6 points, and the Hawks have scored 86, 82 and 87 points in their last three games.

When the Bearcats struggle, it’s usually on offense.

“We try to be tough to beat and when we make shots we’re really tough to beat,” Cronin said. “To win six in a row, you’ve got to make shots. You might be able to grind out a win or two, but to really advance you’ve got to get hot and knock down shots.”