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Spokane, Washington  Est. May 19, 1883

Senate Republicans fight for their majority; House GOP looks safer

A Capitol Hill police officer drives on the East Front of the Capitol Hill in Washington, Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2016, on election day. (Susan Walsh / Associated Press)
By Karoun Demirjian Washington Post

WASHINGTON – On Tuesday night, swing-state voters won’t just determine who captures the White House, but whether Republicans retain the congressional majority they have held for the last two years.

The Senate majority will likely be determined by a handful of hotly-contested states, as Democrats need to pick up just four or five seats to regain the majority lost in the 2014 midterms (four if Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton prevails; five if GOP nominee Donald Trump wins). While Republicans incumbents have gained in recent polls, they are still on defense, fighting to stave off a Democratic sweep of the battleground states.

In the House, Republicans are favored to retain their majority, but it will almost certainly shrink. Republicans could see some of their most established, senior members – such as Florida Rep. John Mica and California Rep. Darrell Issa – upset by challengers riding a strong wave of anti-Trump sentiment.

Among the states that will determine control of the Senate are New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Illinois and Wisconsin, where Republican incumbents are on the ropes in blue states that President Obama won in 2012. Watch bellwether House districts like Illinois’ 10th, where Rep. Bob Dold (R) is fighting the Trump headwinds, New Jersey’s 5th district where Republican Rep. Scott Garrett is in trouble, and Iowa’s 1st district where GOP Rep. Rod Blum is in trouble.

The purple states and districts at play are dotted across the national map, so if the GOP is able to capitalize on a late-breaking burst of momentum, the composition of Congress might not be clear until the final polls have closed. But if the Democrats, led by Clinton, have an especially good night, the future of Capitol Hill could be determined as early 8 p.m.

Democrats appear to have one ace in the hole already: GOP Sen. Mark Kirk of Illinois has long been flagging in his race against Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth. Meanwhile once-close races in Florida and Arizona – where erstwhile presidential candidates Marco Rubio, R-Fla., and John McCain, R-Ariz., are defending their seats – seem set to land safely in the GOP column.

An early indicator of how congressional tides may turn will be in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, where incumbent Republican Sens. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania and Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire are neck-and-neck with their Democratic challengers, Katie McGinty and Granite State Gov. Maggie Hassan, respectively.

Both states could be an indicator of whether Republican incumbents will be able to outrun Trump if he loses them. Toomey has refused to say who he will vote for, while Ayotte repudiated her party’s nominee following the release of lewd comments he made on 2005 videotape. They’re hoping a significant slice of the electorate will split their tickets, choosing Clinton at the top and them for Senate.

But control of the Senate isn’t actually likely to be determined until polls close in North Carolina and Missouri, and then Wisconsin.

Wisconsin’s Ron Johnson recently gained ground against former Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold, who is favored to win. Meanwhile Missouri’s Roy Blunt – a member of Senate GOP leadership – and North Carolina’s Richard Burr, the top Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee, are finding themselves in tossup contests after neither of them ran standout campaigns.

If those states are close, the Senate majority might not be determined until polls close in Nevada, where Republican Rep. Joe Heck and Democratic former state attorney general Catherine Cortez Masto are battling to replace outgoing Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev.

Meanwhile, House leaders will be watching races in a few dozen states to see if Democrats are able to stage upsets, or if the GOP manages to hold onto the bulk of its House majority. Democrats need 30 seats to retake control of the lower chamber.

Though House Democrats claimed just a month ago that the majority was within their grasp, that is increasingly unlikely as no national wave seems to be developing in either party’s direction.

But it is possible that Democrats knock out one of the GOP’s chief attack dogs against the Obama administration, as well as one of its most senior Republicans in a series of Florida races that could measure the force of demographic changes in newly-fashioned districts, as well as how minority voting blocs are burgeoning.

Mica’s race is in part, fueled by redistricting that put the normally safe incumbent – he’s held office since 1993 – within striking distance for 38-year-old Democratic challenger Stephanie Murphy. Other Florida House seats that could swing either way include those belonging to Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy, who is challenging Rubio; and one currently held by Republican Rep. David Jolly – who decided not to challenge Rubio.

In California, former Oversight Committee Chair Darrell Issa – who was banging the Republicans’ Benghazi drum before there was a Benghazi committee – could be the GOP’s most high-profile House loss of the night if he is bested by Democrat Doug Applegate, a former Marine colonel whose camp has ridiculed Issa’s recent attempts to recast himself as a friend of the Obama administration.

Other competitive House races are all over the country, from Illinois to New Hampshire to Nevada.

In the suburbs of Chicago, Dold is defending his congressional seat against the Democrat who used to occupy it, former Rep. Brad Schneider. It’s unclear how that one might turn out.

Meanwhile in New Hampshire, the likely outcome of a similar matchup between incumbent Republican Frank Guinta and his predecessor, former Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, is anybody’s guess — the polling hasn’t consistently favored one over the other.

Two races in Nevada could turn on whether Democrats have successfully stoked the Latino vote, as Republican Rep. Crescent Hardy faces state senator and Reid protege Ruben Kihuen. One district over, Republican Danny Tarkanian and Democrat Jacky Rosen battle it out over the seat Heck vacated to make a run at the Senate.

In Minnesota’s 2nd, where Democrats backing Angela Craig have tried to link Republican talk radio host Jason Lewis to Trump over his comments about “not-thinking” women and “cultural suicide” by the “white population.” One of them will replace outgoing Republican Rep. John Kline.