A quick look at QBs who leave school early

PULLMAN – The last time Luke Falk talked openly about entering the 2017 NFL draft, he said that while he was not giving it much thought, if he had to make the choice right then, on Oct. 31, he would stay.

His coach, Mike Leach, also thinks Falk will come back for his senior season, and he has a simple reason why he Falk should.

“There are a lot of arguments, the simplest one is that most guys who leave early don’t make the team,” Leach said. “Most guys who leave early at the quarterback position aren’t successful.”

Because recent early entrants have had success, such as No. 1 overall picks Jared Goff and Jameis Winston, there might be some skepticism around Leach’s reason for Falk staying. So let’s dig into the numbers and figure out whether or not most quarterbacks who leave early are successful or not

To be successful, of course, can mean different things to different people. Some would argue that a quarterback like Blake Bortles, the No. 3 pick in 2014, was right to leave early because he landed a big rookie contract and an opportunity to prove himself as a starter.

Others might say that to be successful one must be like Marcus Mariota, the No. 2 pick in 2015 who clearly had armed himself with the tools in college to be an exceptional NFL quarterback, and positioned himself well to earn a big second contract.

Leach only said “make the team” but we’ll do him one better and use getting drafted as our barometer of success. Using that definition, whether or not early entrants are successful depends on whether or not you believe the last three years are a blip, or the start of a new trend.

There have been 10 quarterbacks who left school early to enter the last three drafts, and only Wyoming’s Brett Smith was not drafted. More impressively, seven of those 10 quarterbacks were selected in the first round of their respective drafts.

In prior years, quarterbacks have been taking much bigger risks by leaving school early. There were seven early entrants at quarterback in the 2012 and 2013 drafts, and four of them went undrafted. Two of the three who heard their names called on draft day were Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, a pair of elite college players who went No. 1 and No. 2 overall.

So, if quarterbacks are getting better information about where they are likely to be drafted, it makes sense for Falk to leave if the concern is making a team. There appears to be an emerging consensus that Falk would be selected somewhere between the start of the third and end of the fifth round if he were to enter the upcoming NFL draft.

But maybe the prognosticators have just gotten lucky. Seven of 10 being selected in the first round over the last three years means it would have been hard to miss on those players getting drafted at all, and obviously the last three years have produced a lot of exceptionally good quarterbacks.

The middle rounds may be trickier to grade, and maybe Falk really would be taking a risk by leaving early. And of course, there are plenty of other reasons to return to school.

Maybe, like Gabe Marks, he will want one more shot at leading his team to a Rose Bowl. Or maybe the Cougars will make it this year, and Falk will want to repeat.