In the end, it comes down to the battleground states

In the end, when voters have their say, the U.S. Constitution kicks the pollsters to the curb. The bookies who set the odds, the statisticians who crunch their numbers, the candidates who fill the air with braggadocio and promises, the phone bank robocallers who drive Americans nuts with dinnertime interruptions – all of them, come election day, have no choice but to fall silent and wait.

It’s democracy’s turn. The people are about to speak.

From the smallest towns to the largest cities, Americans mark ballots or poke at a variety of voting machines. Behind the scenes, small armies of citizen volunteers and government officials collect the results and execute the count.

The only poll that truly counts, that speaks authoritatively with the public’s voice, is the one that still has power to surprise. It’s the one that might set off a landslide, or pitch the political establishment into another four years of gridlock.

So skillful have statisticians become, however, that they have singled out a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. The rest of the states have voted so consistently for one particular party that their verdict seems a foregone conclusion. Southern and rural states vote Republican. Along the Great Lakes and the Pacific Ocean, states with large urban centers vote Democrat.

What qualifies a state to be a tossup? First, a history of inconsistent outcomes. Second, change in demographics or the economy. For example: the Southwest’s growing Hispanic population; the arrival of young high-tech workers in booming Virginia suburbs; economic despair in coal mining and Rust Belt states where union jobs have waned.

Designation as a tossup brings an avalanche of campaign spending and frequent visits from the candidates. All of which might make the residents of other states wonder whether their vote matters; but that concern overlooks a simple fact: every ballot features numerous races aside from the presidency. From county commissioner to superior court judge, these races shape the communities where voters live.

And then, there’s always the possibility that the pollsters, for all their efforts, might have missed the rumble of a landslide forming over their heads and out of sight from all those robocalls to landline phones.

In 2000 the whole election came down to Florida. Lawyers squabbled over ballot designs, hanging chads and obstacles to some who wished to vote. But a Supreme Court ruling declared George W. Bush the winner of the state and the presidency, by 537 votes. Once seen as the nation’s retirement home, now Florida attracts a booming immigrant population from throughout Latin America. Donald Trump’s comments have led Hispanics to wonder if they’re welcome, a sentiment that may shift the state toward Democrats.

In the last six presidential elections, Pennsylvania voted Democratic. This year, polls show Hillary Clinton with at least a five-point lead over Donald Trump, according to The New York Times. Between 2000 and 2010, the state’s racial composition changed: Hispanics increased 82 percent; Asians, 60 percent; and African Americans, 13 percent. Trump has considered Pennsylvania crucial to his hopes for a win, but his support among non-whites is in doubt.

The only state to have voted for every winning presidential candidate since 1964, Ohio spurned Donald Trump in its primary, favoring native son and governor, Republican John Kasich. But September’s polls showed Trump with a lead over Hillary Clinton here. Demographics hold the explanation: running contrary to the trends nationwide, this Rust Belt state is growing whiter (83 percent), older and less educated. The Clinton campaign lately intensified its Ohio campaign, but hopes it can win without this long-time bellweather.

Splitting from its Old South past, North Carolina has been attracting waves of college-educated job seekers from the northeastern United States. Concentrated around rapidly growing areas like Charlotte and Raleigh, these newcomers lean Democrat. Meanwhile, 86 percent of the state’s African Americans support Hillary Clinton, according to analysis by the New York Times. And this year a federal court slapped down North Carolina voting laws that had tried to block African Americans “with almost surgical precision.”

A hotbed of white concern about immigration, Arizona has elected conservative luminaries such as Republican Gov. Jan Brewer, a backer of Donald Trump, and Sheriff Joe Arpaio, who repeatedly has been sued for racial profiling. With a population of 58 percent non-Hispanic whites, Arizona has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1948. But with Hispanics approaching a third of the population, questions are growing about the impact of Trump’s hostile remarks about immigrants from south of the border.